07/28/2025
Keep an eye out if your in any of the risks zones today. Follow along here and wicked weather for the latest.
🌩 Severe Weather Outlook (Today)
⚠ Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5)
Summary:
A derecho (long-lived, fast-moving line of severe storms) is likely across parts of the northern Plains.
Widespread damaging winds, with several gusts expected to exceed 75 mph.
A few line-embedded tornadoes and some severe hail are also possible.
Montana: Isolated to scattered severe storms could bring large hail and damaging winds.
🔍 Details
An upper ridge dominates much of the U.S., but disturbances moving along the ridge will spark storms.
In the northern Plains, a thunderstorm cluster is expected to quickly organize into an intense MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) by late morning or early afternoon.
The atmosphere will be extremely unstable, with very high CAPE values (>5000 J/kg), mid-70s dewpoints, and steep lapse rates, helping storms become very powerful.
Strong wind shear (50+ kts effective bulk shear) and high low-level shear (300+ m²/s² SRH) could allow some tornadoes to develop within the line.
📍 Track & Timing Uncertainty
Exact path of the derecho depends on where earlier storms leave outflow boundaries.
Some guidance suggests a second bow echo may develop closer to the SD/NE border.
⚠ Montana
Afternoon storms may become multicellular or supercellular.
Favorable lapse rates and strong shear could produce large hail and damaging winds.