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Cooler weather for October 7-10…Here is the setup.
09/30/2025

Cooler weather for October 7-10…

Here is the setup.

First Warn Forecast: Monday, September 29, 2025Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Ill...
09/29/2025

First Warn Forecast: Monday, September 29, 2025

Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois

Fall Warmth at Its Peak
Cool Nights Continue
No Rain in Sight

As we begin the final week of September, our quiet fall weather pattern holds strong. An upper-level ridge remains parked over the Mississippi Valley while broad surface high pressure stretches from the eastern Great Lakes down to Texas. This setup keeps our skies sunny, our afternoons warm, and our nights crisp and cool.

Temperatures today will climb into the mid and even upper 80s across much of the region, likely the warmest readings of the week as the ridge reaches peak strength. Despite the warmth, the dry air mass keeps humidity low, making conditions comfortable for late September. Overnight, clear skies and calm winds allow for strong radiational cooling, with lows dropping back into the 50s outside of urban areas and near 60 around the St. Louis Metro.

This pattern continues through the middle of the week with little to no change. Each afternoon will remain warm with highs in the mid-80s, while nights cool efficiently into the 50s. Dewpoints hold mostly in the 50s, occasionally brushing into the low 60s, so even though it is warmer than average, the air will not feel sticky.

Looking longer term, the ridge gradually weakens and tilts eastward by the weekend as a western trough pushes into the Plains. While this introduces some changes to the large-scale pattern, guidance continues to suggest that meaningful rainfall will stay north and west of our region. For us, the high-pressure influence remains strong enough to keep conditions mostly dry through the weekend. By early next week, Gulf moisture may finally begin creeping northward, but confidence in rain reaching Missouri and Illinois remains low at this time.

The story remains the same: fall warmth continues with highs in the mid to upper 80s, cool nights in the 50s, and no rain in sight. While the weather is nearly flawless for outdoor plans, the lack of rainfall is deepening drought conditions across Missouri and Illinois. Enjoy the sunshine and comfortable warmth this week—it’s a stretch that will likely be remembered as one of the most stable and pleasant runs of the season.

The inside of Humberto from the ISS last night.
09/28/2025

The inside of Humberto from the ISS last night.

First Warn Forecast: Sunday, September 28, 2025Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Ill...
09/28/2025

First Warn Forecast: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois

Warm Afternoons in the 80s
Cool, Comfortable Nights in the 50s
Dry Stretch Shows No Signs of Breaking

The final Sunday of September is shaping up to be another beautiful one across the region. High pressure over the Ozarks continues to dominate, holding warm but moderately dry air in place. While a weak cold front brushed into northern Missouri overnight, it has stalled and is now being nudged back northward. That means for us, there’s no change to the overall pattern—sunshine, warm afternoons, and cool nights will continue through the coming week.

This afternoon, highs climb into the mid to upper 80s, with some of the warmest readings we’ve seen during this stretch. Despite the warmth, dewpoints remain in the 50s, keeping the air comfortable rather than humid. Tonight, clear skies and light winds allow for strong radiational cooling, with lows falling into the 50s across most of Missouri and Illinois, while the St. Louis Metro hangs just above 60.

Looking ahead, ridging overhead keeps the pattern locked in place through midweek, and conditions will be nearly identical each day—sunny skies, highs in the 80s, lows in the 50s. By late in the week and next weekend, high pressure shifts eastward into New England, but its influence will continue to suppress Gulf moisture from moving north. In fact, drier air may filter into our area midweek, leading to crystal-clear skies and warm afternoons without even the hint of afternoon cloud buildup.

No Rain in Sight

The dry fall pattern is set to continue through at least the 7-day period. Despite tropical activity in the Atlantic, including hurricanes well away from our region, there is no mechanism to pull that moisture inland. The combination of ridging aloft and strong surface high pressure keeps the Gulf locked down, and with instability lacking, we won’t even see much in the way of cloud development.

For any hope of meaningful rainfall, we have to look beyond the 7-day window. Guidance suggests the ridge may eventually weaken during the first week of October as a trough moves out of the western U.S. If that happens, Gulf moisture may finally surge northward, providing the ingredients for showers or even thunderstorms. Until then, however, Missouri and Illinois remain firmly under a dry spell.

Drought Concerns Increasing

While this weather is picture-perfect for fall festivals, harvest, and outdoor activities, the lack of rain is becoming a growing concern. Much of Missouri and Illinois is already trending toward moderate drought, with low streamflows and increasingly dry soils. With no precipitation in the forecast for at least another week, conditions will likely worsen. This could impact crop yields, fall foliage timing, and even fire danger in grassy areas as October begins.

The next 7 to 10 days feature a remarkable stretch of quiet fall weather—warm afternoons in the 80s, cool, crisp nights in the 50s, and no rain in sight. While perfect for outdoor plans, the continued dryness means drought conditions will expand across Missouri and Illinois. Enjoy the beautiful end to September, but be mindful that the region badly needs a soaking rain as we head into October.

A mean cat 5 Humberto thankfully not a direct impact to land…. Look at this eye!
09/27/2025

A mean cat 5 Humberto thankfully not a direct impact to land…. Look at this eye!

First Warn Forecast: Saturday, September 27, 2025Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern I...
09/27/2025

First Warn Forecast: Saturday, September 27, 2025

Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois

Beautiful Weather Holds Strong
Above-Normal Temperatures Ahead
Dry Pattern Deepens Regional Drought

The region is heading into one of the most stable and pleasant stretches of weather we’ve seen all year. High pressure and an upper ridge are firmly in control, locking in a run of warm, dry, and sunny days with cool, comfortable nights. This setup will dominate the forecast for the next 10 days, providing ideal conditions for outdoor plans, harvest activity, and early fall festivals.

This afternoon will feature plenty of sunshine with highs climbing into the low to mid-80s. That’s 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late September, yet the dry air keeps it feeling pleasant. Tonight, clear skies allow for a quick cool-down, with most spots dipping back into the 50s, while the St. Louis Metro holds near 60. Sunday turns a bit warmer, with highs edging toward the upper 80s in some communities.

Looking ahead, the overall story does not change much. Each day through next week will bring highs in the low to mid-80s, with a few upper-80s readings possible in Central Missouri. Overnight lows stay seasonably cool, in the 50s and lower 60s. This pattern carries straight through next weekend and even into the first part of October. By late in the 10-day period, temperatures may ease slightly, trending closer to the upper 70s, but even then conditions remain warm and dry compared to normal for the season.

The Bigger Picture: Hurricanes and the Fujiwhara Effect

While our weather is calm, the Atlantic is very active. Two hurricanes are spinning, and their close proximity has raised the potential for the Fujiwhara effect—a rare interaction where two cyclones rotate around one another, altering their tracks and intensity. For now, most guidance keeps these systems offshore, sparing the Gulf states and limiting their inland reach. The important note for us: they will not bring any meaningful rainfall to Missouri or Illinois, meaning our dry pattern continues uninterrupted.

Growing Drought in Missouri and Illinois

The downside to this beautiful weather is the expanding drought. With no rain expected over the next 10 days, soil moisture is declining again, streams are running low, and harvest season is kicking up more dust than usual. Parts of Central and Southeast Missouri, as well as Southern Illinois, are now slipping into moderate drought. While this stretch of sunshine is perfect for outdoor activities, the lack of rainfall could become a larger concern if it extends deeper into October.

The bottom line: the next 10 days bring nearly flawless fall weather—sunny, dry afternoons in the 80s, crisp and cool nights in the 50s, and no rain in sight. It’s a stretch to enjoy, but it also comes with growing drought concerns for Missouri and Illinois. With tropical systems staying east and the ridge holding firm, the region may not see its next real chance for rain until well into October.

Look at all the radar images of what looks to be ground clutter… well, it’s birds in migration.
09/26/2025

Look at all the radar images of what looks to be ground clutter… well, it’s birds in migration.

First Warn Forecast: Friday, September 26, 2025Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Ill...
09/26/2025

First Warn Forecast: Friday, September 26, 2025

Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois

Dry Pattern Holds Firm
Afternoons Warming Into the 80s
Cool Nights, Signs of Fall Emerging

A prolonged stretch of dry, quiet weather continues across the region, and there’s no sign of rain in the immediate future. High pressure and an upper ridge remain firmly in control, keeping skies sunny and conditions seasonably warm. Gulf moisture remains locked well to the south, and the overall pattern looks dry for at least the next week.

Temperatures will climb a little higher today, with most locations topping out in the low 80s. That’s a few degrees warmer than Thursday and about 5 to 10 degrees above average for late September. Humidity remains in check, with dewpoints staying in the 50s, making for warm but comfortable afternoons. Nights will continue to cool off quickly under clear skies, with lows in the 50s and some upper 40s possible in cooler valleys. Patchy fog could form in low-lying areas each morning, especially along river valleys.

As we move through the weekend and into next week, the ridge strengthens, keeping highs in the mid-80s and nights cool and refreshing. This combination of warm days and crisp nights is classic early fall weather—and it’s setting the stage for two seasonal highlights:

Massive Bird Migration: Clear skies and calm winds create ideal conditions for fall migration. Across Missouri and Illinois, millions of songbirds, raptors, and waterfowl are beginning their long journeys south. Evening skies may feature migrating geese and ducks, while early mornings could bring an increase in backyard visitors stopping to refuel. With calm, dry nights, expect heavier migration flights in the days ahead.

Fall Foliage Beginning: The weather pattern is also favorable for the first hints of fall color. The combination of sunny, warm afternoons and cool, crisp nights triggers chemical changes in leaves that enhance reds, oranges, and yellows. Across Central and Southeast Missouri, early changes are already being reported in sumac, walnut, and maple trees. Southern Illinois will soon follow. Peak color is still weeks away, but this stretch of weather is setting up for a vibrant fall foliage season if dryness doesn’t become too prolonged.

Looking at the extended forecast, dry weather holds strong into next week. Highs will hover in the 80s through midweek, with nights in the 50s to low 60s. By late week, there is some potential for changes as a stronger trough approaches from the west. This could finally bring a chance of rain by the first weekend of October, though confidence remains low. Until then, sunshine dominates, with the region enjoying one of the most stable and pleasant stretches of the entire year.

First Warn Forecast: Thursday, September 25, 2025Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern I...
09/25/2025

First Warn Forecast: Thursday, September 25, 2025

Serving St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois

Dry Stretch Begins
Warming Into the 80s
Cool Nights, Comfortable Days

After several unsettled days earlier this week, a prolonged stretch of quiet weather begins today. High pressure building across the Midwest will keep skies mostly sunny and conditions dry from now into much of next week. This ridge will lock into place, creating an extended run of mild, calm, and comfortable weather across St. Louis, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois.

Temperatures will be seasonable today, topping out in the mid to upper 70s. By Friday, as the airmass modifies, readings will climb into the lower 80s. This warming trend continues into the weekend, with widespread highs in the low to mid-80s—roughly 5 to 10 degrees above average for late September. Despite the warm afternoons, conditions will remain pleasant thanks to lower humidity levels. Sunshine will dominate through the period, with little more than a few fair-weather clouds from time to time.

One of the more notable aspects of this pattern will be the overnight cooling. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop sharply after sunset. Most of the region will start mornings in the 50s, while the St. Louis Metro will hang in the low 60s. These crisp nights and warm afternoons will create a true “open the windows” stretch of weather that many look forward to this time of year.

Looking ahead to next week, the blocky pattern aloft keeps the ridge parked firmly over the Midwest. Each day will bring more of the same: warm, dry, and sunny. Highs will remain in the low to mid-80s through at least the middle of the week, with nighttime lows holding steady in the 50s outside of the urban centers. The combination of warm afternoons and cool mornings will be a daily feature, offering a pleasant and steady run of early fall weather.

By late next week and into the first weekend of October, there are hints that the ridge may begin to weaken slightly. This would allow temperatures to settle back toward the upper 70s and low 80s, closer to normal for the season. At this point, no significant rain chances are showing up in the guidance, meaning the region could go nearly ten straight days without meaningful precipitation.

For those hoping for fall color, this stretch of warm afternoons and crisp nights will help jumpstart the process, especially across Central and Southeast Missouri. Farmers will also welcome the dry period as harvest season ramps up, though some may start to worry about moisture deficits if the dry stretch extends too far into October.

In summary, the next 10 days bring one of the most stable and enjoyable weather patterns we’ve seen in weeks: bright sunshine, warm afternoons, cool nights, and no rain in sight. It’s a stretch that invites outdoor plans, fall festivals, and evening walks, while also giving us a taste of the transition season between the lingering summer warmth and the true cool of October ahead.

Watch for rare, chaotic Fujiwhara effect:The dance between developing storms in the Atlantic could soon evolve into one ...
09/25/2025

Watch for rare, chaotic Fujiwhara effect:

The dance between developing storms in the Atlantic could soon evolve into one of meteorology's most unusual and rare events: The Fujiwhara effect.

The dance between developing storms in the Atlantic could soon evolve into one of meteorology's most unusual and rare events: The Fujiwhara effect, which occurs when two storms interact with one another.

irst Warn Forecast: Wednesday, September 24, 2025Serving St. Louis • Central Missouri • Southeast Missouri • Southern Il...
09/24/2025

irst Warn Forecast: Wednesday, September 24, 2025
Serving St. Louis • Central Missouri • Southeast Missouri • Southern Illinois

Headlines

Occasional rain with a few thunderstorms will continue today and into the evening before tapering off overnight from northwest to southeast.

Dry weather is forecast through next Tuesday, with a warming trend beginning Thursday.

Temperatures will climb from near normal Thursday to 5–10 degrees above normal by the weekend into early next week.

Forecast Discussion

Showers and a few thunderstorms are still hanging around the region this morning, though many areas are seeing lighter activity thanks to dry air filtering in at mid and upper levels. A general lull is expected early, but another uptick in shower coverage is likely later this morning into the afternoon as an upper-level disturbance pushes east across Missouri. Instability will remain modest, so storms that form should not be particularly strong. Still, with ample moisture in place, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing efficient rainfall, along with lightning and brief gusty winds.

Rainfall totals today will generally remain under an inch across most of the area, and given the recent stretch of dry weather, the ground should be able to absorb it without major flooding concerns. Rain will gradually wind down from northwest to southeast overnight as drier air moves in behind the departing system.

The pattern then shifts in our favor for a stretch of dry and sunny weather from Thursday through at least Tuesday. High pressure aloft will strengthen, locking in stable conditions. Temperatures will start out near seasonal normals on Thursday, then steadily climb through the weekend. By Saturday and Sunday, highs are expected to top out in the mid 80s, running 5–10 degrees above average and giving the region a taste of late-summer warmth as we round out September.

Bottom line: Expect occasional rain and a few thunderstorms today, with activity ending overnight. After that, sunshine and warmer weather dominate through early next week.

First Warn Forecast: Tuesday, September 23, 2025Serving St. Louis • Central Missouri • Southeast Missouri • Southern Ill...
09/24/2025

First Warn Forecast: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Serving St. Louis • Central Missouri • Southeast Missouri • Southern Illinois

Headlines

Dense fog is impacting much of the area this morning, creating low visibility for commuters—use extra caution on the roads.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will move in from west to east today, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and pockets of gusty winds.

Intermittent showers will continue across the region through Wednesday night.

Dry weather returns Friday into the weekend, with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s, a few degrees above normal.

Forecast Discussion

A murky start to the day is underway with dense fog across much of Missouri and Illinois, reducing visibility for the morning commute. Once the fog lifts, attention turns to a developing system over the Plains that will spread widespread showers and a few thunderstorms into the region through the day. Rain will overspread from west to east, and while no widespread severe weather is anticipated, a few storms could bring gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Moisture levels are running high, with precipitable water values near 2 inches—meaning storms will be very efficient rain producers. Some areas, especially near and just north or south of I-70, could see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through late Wednesday morning, with isolated higher totals possible. This rain should fall over several hours, which will limit flooding concerns, but localized ponding in low-lying or poor drainage areas can’t be ruled out.

Showers will linger into Wednesday and Wednesday night as upper-level energy digs across the Missouri Valley. Gradual drying will arrive from north to south late Wednesday night into Thursday, with most areas dry by early Thursday morning. A few stray showers may hang on into Thursday in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois, but overall, conditions will improve.

Looking ahead, the end of the week brings a welcome break. By Friday, high pressure builds in, bringing dry skies and seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures. The weekend looks pleasant, with highs in the low to mid 80s and a stretch of calm, dry weather.

Bottom line: Expect fog and wet roads this morning, followed by on-and-off showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday night, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Things dry out by the end of the week, setting up a warmer and quieter weekend.

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