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First Warn Forecast: Friday, May 29, 2026HeadlinesShowers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to increase today, esp...
05/29/2026

First Warn Forecast: Friday, May 29, 2026

Headlines

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to increase today, especially across central and southeast Missouri where rain chances range from 60 to 80 percent.

The severe weather threat remains low through Saturday, though some storms could produce brief heavy downpours.

Rain chances continue at times through the weekend into Monday, but there will also be extended dry periods between rounds of activity.

Temperatures stay seasonable with highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s through early next week.

A large omega block pattern continues to dominate the weather setup across the nation, keeping the Midwest locked into a slow-moving and somewhat stagnant pattern. This setup has allowed an elongated trough over the Plains to gradually drift eastward, helping showers and isolated thunderstorms spread farther into Missouri early this morning and eventually into additional portions of the region later today.

The highest coverage of rain and thunderstorms today will focus across central and southeast Missouri where deeper moisture and better lift are in place. Areas farther northeast toward the St. Louis metro and west-central Illinois may still see scattered activity develop later today and tonight, but coverage there should remain more isolated to scattered compared to locations farther southwest.

While thunderstorms will be possible, widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Forecast soundings continue to show weak wind shear and limited instability organization, which should prevent storms from becoming well organized. However, with atmospheric moisture levels remaining elevated, some storms may produce locally heavy downpours and occasional lightning. Ponding of water on roads during heavier rain cannot be ruled out, especially in areas that experience repeated showers.

Rain chances continue tonight into Saturday as weak disturbances and leftover convective boundaries drift through the region. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms may develop at times, although there will certainly be dry periods mixed in between. This is not expected to be an all-day washout for most locations, but rather an unsettled pattern with occasional rounds of rain.

Looking ahead into the remainder of the weekend, two additional disturbances may bring more scattered shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday night and again Sunday night into Monday. Current trends suggest the better rain chances remain focused across central and northeast Missouri, though portions of the St. Louis metro and southern Illinois could also see periodic activity.

By the middle of next week, upper-level ridging is expected to strengthen once again across the region, gradually reducing rain chances and allowing for a more stable weather pattern to return.

Temperatures through the period remain fairly comfortable for late May standards. Afternoon highs will generally stay in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with cooler temperatures in areas receiving more persistent clouds and rainfall. Overnight lows will remain mild, mainly in the low to middle 60s.

First Warn Forecast: Thursday, May 28, 2026HeadlinesPatchy dense fog is possible early this morning, especially in river...
05/28/2026

First Warn Forecast: Thursday, May 28, 2026

Headlines

Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning, especially in river valleys across east-central Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Most areas stay dry today with seasonably warm temperatures and lower humidity levels.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return Friday into Saturday, mainly across central and southeast Missouri.

No widespread severe weather is expected, though lightning and brief heavy downpours will remain possible in stronger cells.

A drier pattern gradually settles in next week with temperatures remaining near seasonal averages.

Early this morning, some patchy fog has developed in low-lying and river valley locations, especially across parts of southwest Illinois and east-central Missouri. While widespread dense fog is not expected, a few isolated spots could briefly see visibility reduced to around a quarter mile. Drivers heading out early should be prepared for rapidly changing visibility in some areas.

As we move through the day, dry air pushing southwest behind a weak backdoor cold front will help keep much of the region rain-free. Humidity levels should remain fairly comfortable for late May standards, and afternoon highs are expected to climb into the middle 80s under a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity today should stay well southwest of the St. Louis metro and focused closer to southwest Missouri. However, that moisture begins slowly drifting northward again late tonight into Friday as a weak upper-level disturbance approaches.

By Friday, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across portions of central and southeast Missouri, with some activity possibly trying to creep northeast toward the St. Louis area by afternoon or evening. Confidence remains lower farther northeast, but the Ozarks and areas south and west of St. Louis appear to have the better chance for off-and-on rain. Severe weather is not anticipated due to weak wind shear and limited storm organization, but brief heavy rain and lightning will still accompany stronger storms.

Heading into the weekend, rain chances gradually decrease as a persistent omega block pattern settles across the country. This setup favors a slow drying trend along with steady temperatures. While an isolated shower cannot be ruled out Saturday, especially across southeast Missouri, much of Sunday into next week looks quieter with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows slowly cooling as drier air settles into the region.

First Warn Forecast: Wednesday, May 27, 2026HeadlinesShowers and a few thunderstorms remain possible today, especially n...
05/27/2026

First Warn Forecast: Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Headlines

Showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible today, especially near and east of the St. Louis metro into Illinois.

Severe weather is not expected, but brief heavy downpours may occur under any stronger shower or thunderstorm.

Rain chances fade tonight into Thursday as drier northeast flow builds in.

Temperatures stay close to normal, generally in the upper 70s to mid-80s through the forecast period.

Patchy fog may be possible early today and again late tonight, especially where clouds briefly thin out or where rain fell.

A stubborn weather pattern remains in place across the region, with weak upper-level flow and a lingering boundary keeping scattered shower chances around. This is not a widespread rain setup for everyone, but it is one of those patterns where one town may stay dry while another gets a quick downpour. The best chances today look to focus along and east of I-70, especially into Illinois, where scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms may develop.

Storms today should remain limited in strength. Weak wind shear, weak flow aloft, and cloud cover should keep the severe threat low. Still, with higher moisture in place, any thunderstorm could briefly produce heavier rain before fading.

Tonight into Thursday, a backdoor cold front and high pressure dropping south will help push drier air into the region. That should gradually shut down rain chances from northeast to southwest. Southeast and central Missouri may hold onto a few shower chances a little longer, but much of the region trends quieter.

Looking ahead to Friday and the weekend, the forecast continues to lean drier, especially for the St. Louis metro, northeast Missouri, and west-central Illinois. Central and southeast Missouri may still see a small chance for a passing shower depending on how far northeast any weak disturbance can reach, but overall the weekend is looking much less unsettled.

Temperatures will not move much over the next several days. Expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid-80s, with cooler spots where clouds or rain linger. Overall, it is a near-normal late-May pattern with lower storm concerns and improving weather heading toward the weekend.

First Warn ForecastTuesday, May 26, 2026After a quiet Memorial Day for many across the region, the forecast turns a bit ...
05/26/2026

First Warn Forecast
Tuesday, May 26, 2026

After a quiet Memorial Day for many across the region, the forecast turns a bit more unsettled today, especially across Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois. While not everyone will see rain, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening as moisture lifts northward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The best chance for wet weather will be south of Interstate 70, including parts of the St. Louis Metro, Southeast Missouri, and southwest Illinois. Some locations could pick up locally heavy rainfall under stronger thunderstorms, while areas farther north toward Central Missouri and west-central Illinois may stay mostly dry through much of the day.

The atmosphere will become moderately unstable this afternoon, but wind shear remains weak. That means widespread severe weather is not expected. A few rumbles of thunder and brief downpours are possible, but the overall severe threat remains very low. This is more of a “keep the umbrella nearby just in case” kind of setup than a “cancel your plans and build an ark” situation. Mother Nature is dialing things back a notch today.

Cloud cover and scattered rain will keep temperatures cooler where showers develop, with highs mainly in the middle 70s. Areas that remain dry longer could still reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tonight, scattered showers gradually diminish with mild overnight lows settling into the middle and upper 60s.

Looking ahead, the overall pattern is beginning to trend drier through the latter half of the week. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday and Thursday, but confidence is increasing that many areas will see more dry time along with seasonably warm temperatures in the 80s heading toward the weekend.

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05/26/2026

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First Warn Weather: Memorial DayMonday, May 25, 2026Memorial Day is turning out to be a solid finish to the holiday week...
05/25/2026

First Warn Weather: Memorial Day
Monday, May 25, 2026

Memorial Day is turning out to be a solid finish to the holiday weekend across Missouri and Illinois. High pressure remains in control this morning, helping provide mainly quiet conditions across the region. Some patchy fog may develop early this morning, especially near river valleys, low-lying areas, and locations that picked up rainfall recently. Visibility issues should remain localized, and any fog that forms will gradually lift after sunrise.

As we head into the afternoon, expect a pleasant late-May day with near-normal temperatures and manageable humidity levels. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the St. Louis metro, central Missouri, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois. Winds will stay fairly light out of the east, helping keep the sticky summer-like humidity at bay for one more day. While scattered fair weather clouds may bubble up during the afternoon, especially south of Interstate 70, most communities will stay dry through sunset.

If you are heading to Memorial Day ceremonies, backyard cookouts, cemeteries, parks, or lakes today, the weather should cooperate nicely. It will be one of those classic comfortable Memorial Day afternoons where you can actually sit outside without immediately melting into your lawn chair. That is a rare Midwest victory this time of year.

Tonight, clouds will slowly begin increasing from the south and west as the overall weather pattern starts becoming more active again. A stalled upper-level low over eastern Texas will gradually begin lifting northeastward, helping pull moisture back toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

By Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin returning to portions of the region, especially across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Rain coverage will not be widespread all day long, but scattered downpours and thunderstorms will become more common during the afternoon and evening hours. Atmospheric instability will increase, though wind shear remains fairly weak, which should limit organized severe weather potential. Still, any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing lightning, brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and localized ponding of water on roads.

As we move deeper into the week, the overall pattern becomes increasingly unsettled. Multiple rounds of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected from Wednesday into late week as moisture continues pooling along a stalled boundary near the region. This does not look like a washout every day, but rather the typical late spring setup where some communities get drenched while others a few miles away stay mostly dry.

Temperatures through the week will remain seasonably mild to slightly above normal, with daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight lows mainly in the upper 50s and 60s. Cloud cover and thunderstorm activity will likely determine who ends up warmer or cooler each afternoon.

On this Memorial Day, beyond the forecast itself, take a few moments to remember why today matters. The freedom to gather with family, grill outdoors, travel, laugh, and enjoy another day was paid for by men and women who never made it home. Weather may bring us together outside today, but remembrance is what truly defines Memorial Day.

First Warn Forecast: Saturday, May 23, 2026First Warn HeadlinesScattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later t...
05/23/2026

First Warn Forecast: Saturday, May 23, 2026

First Warn Headlines
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later today and continue tonight.
Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rain and lightning are possible.
Memorial Day weekend stays warm and somewhat unsettled with additional pop-up storms possible at times.
A more active pattern returns next week with repeated afternoon and evening storm chances.

A warmer and more humid air mass is settling back into Missouri and Illinois today as temperatures climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the St. Louis Metro, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois. Clouds will increase through the afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms begin developing from west to east.

The overall severe weather threat remains low today due to weak wind shear and limited atmospheric organization. However, a few stronger storms may still produce brief downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Some communities could pick up localized rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches where storms repeatedly move over the same area, though many locations will see much lighter totals.

The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms appears likely this evening and overnight, especially along and near the I-44 and I-70 corridors. Rain and storms will gradually shift eastward toward sunrise Sunday.

Sunday and Memorial Day are shaping up fairly decent overall with near seasonal temperatures and a mix of clouds and sunshine. A few isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms may redevelop, mainly south of I-44 across portions of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, but widespread washout conditions are not expected.

Looking ahead into next week, the weather pattern becomes more summer-like. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with increasing humidity levels. Multiple rounds of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through the end of the week. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, slow-moving storms could bring pockets of heavy rainfall.

Have a great and safe Memorial Day weekend, and keep the umbrella nearby. Spring in the Midwest is once again reminding us it refuses to sit still for very long.

First Warn ForecastFriday, May 22, 2026Clouds are settling back into the region today as a slow-moving weather pattern k...
05/22/2026

First Warn Forecast
Friday, May 22, 2026

Clouds are settling back into the region today as a slow-moving weather pattern keeps temperatures on the cooler side and brings occasional shower chances across parts of Missouri and Illinois. While this is not expected to be a washout for most locations, periods of light rain and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible, especially south of Interstate 44 through this evening.

Expect a gray and cool start to the day with easterly winds helping hold temperatures below what we would typically expect for late May. Afternoon highs will generally climb into the upper 60s to middle 70s across the St. Louis Metro, Central Missouri, Southeast Missouri, and Southern Illinois. Areas farther south toward the Ozarks and portions of Southeast Missouri may see a few scattered showers develop during the afternoon hours. A stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is not expected today.

Tonight, low clouds remain locked in place across much of the region. Patchy fog may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning, especially across Central and Southeast Missouri where humidity levels remain elevated and winds become very light. Drivers heading out early Saturday morning should be prepared for locally reduced visibility.

Heading into the Memorial Day weekend, temperatures will slowly moderate with highs warming back into the 70s and lower 80s by Saturday and Sunday. Another round of showers and weak thunderstorms appears likely late Saturday into Sunday as additional Gulf moisture pushes northward into the region. While stronger storms remain unlikely at this time, periods of heavy rain and lightning will still be possible.

Memorial Day itself currently looks warmer with near to slightly above average temperatures. There will still be a few isolated shower chances, mainly south of Interstate 44, but many locations should remain dry for at least part of the holiday.

Looking ahead to next week, slightly above average temperatures return with increasing humidity and daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances gradually building back into the forecast. Summer is slowly beginning to flex its muscles across the Midwest.

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05/21/2026

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05/20/2026

FirstWARN Alert: Flood Warning for Gasconade and Montgomery County in MO. From Meteorologist Nick Palisch

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