Crown Weather Services, Sturbridge, MA (2025)

10/27/2025

Posted Monday Afternoon 10/27/2025: Extremely powerful Category 5 Hurricane Melissa now has maximum winds of 175 mph. This is about as bad as it can get for the island of Jamaica as a catastrophic hurricane impact is expected. The worst of the hurricane for Jamaica is expected tonight through the day on Tuesday.

Melissa is expected to turn to the north by later today and tonight. This northward track means that the eye and the core of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is expected to move right over the west-central part of Jamaica with landfall occurring on Tuesday morning. This will put Kingston on the bad side of the hurricane & because of this, significant rainfall, catastrophic winds and a very high storm surge is expected for Kingston.

A turn towards the northeast is expected by late Tuesday with this northeasterly track then expected throughout the rest of the week. This means that Melissa will cross eastern Cuba as a Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane during Tuesday night and then move over the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane. After that, Melissa could reach Bermuda on Thursday night as possibly a Category 2 hurricane & a direct hit on Bermuda is quite possible.

- JAMAICA: This continues to look like a worst case scenario in terms of a hurricane hit. Please prepare for this hurricane as if it is the worst hurricane you have ever experienced, because it will be.

Do not go outdoors & stay indoors throughout the rest of today, all of tonight and all day Tuesday. Doing so will probably save your life.

The core of Major Hurricane Melissa containing Category 4 to Category 5 strength winds will hit Jamaica directly from tonight through Tuesday. Landfall looks to occur on the west-central part of the island on Tuesday morning.

Melissa is going to be moving over Jamaica from south to north & because of this, it will produce a catastrophic storm surge of 9 to 13 feet along Jamaica’s south shore, including Kingston Harbor and Norman Manley International Airport.

If that wasn’t enough, heavy and persistent rain will continue to occur across Jamaica throughout the rest of today, all of tonight and all of Tuesday. Widespread rainfall totals of at least 20 to 30 inches (500 to 750 mm) are expected across much of Jamaica. These extreme rainfall totals will lead to catastrophic flooding and numerous landslides throughout the next several days.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of Category 4 to Category 5 strength winds, a very high storm surge & catastrophic flooding from rainfall could be one of Jamaica's most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of Jamaica, I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously.

Extensive damage to infrastructure, long duration power and communication outages and complete isolation of communities are all expected with Melissa.

- HAITI & THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern parts of the Dominican Republic over the next 2 to 3 days. This will lead to extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities, especially in southwestern Haiti.

- EASTERN CUBA: Melissa is expected to cross eastern Cuba as a Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday night & this means that a significant storm surge, extremely strong winds and a high storm surge of 7 to 11 feet can be expected across all of eastern Cuba on Tuesday night, including the city of Santiago de Cuba where severe hurricane conditions are expected on Tuesday night.

All interests in eastern Cuba need to take this hurricane very seriously as you will be hit very hard by Melissa.

- SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS: Current indications seem to point towards Melissa tracking directly over Crooked Island in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as a Category 2 to Category 3 hurricane.

This will lead to significant amounts of wind, rain and surge across the islands of Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador Island, Crooked Island, Samana Cays and Mayaguana Island during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Those of you in the southeastern Bahamas need to get ready now for a pretty hard hit from a hurricane & take it seriously.

- BERMUDA: It is looking pretty likely now that Melissa will impact Bermuda as a hurricane on Thursday night at possibly Category 2 strength.

This means that hurricane force winds, extremely heavy rain & rough surf is quite possible in Bermuda during Thursday night & I urge all interests on the island to monitor the progress of Melissa extremely closely.

10/26/2025

Posted Sunday Afternoon 10/26/2025: Melissa is a powerful Category 4 hurricane this afternoon & is expected to inflicted severe damage on Jamaica. Both catastrophic flooding and extremely severe winds are expected.

FOR JAMAICA - This continues to look like a worst case scenario in terms of a hurricane hit. Please prepare for this hurricane as if it is the worst hurricane you have ever experienced, because it will be.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin to impact Jamaica as we get into this afternoon and this evening. Tropical storm conditions will then continue throughout all of tonight and all of Monday.

The core of Major Hurricane Melissa containing at least Category 4 strength winds will hit Jamaica directly from Monday night through Tuesday. Landfall on the island looks to occur during Tuesday morning.

It should be noted that both of the very high resolution HAFS hurricane models are forecasting a peak intensity at landfall with these models forecasting Melissa having maximum winds of 170 to 175 mph. A majority of the Google Deep Mind AI ensemble models forecast a landfall intensity of Category 4 strength, however, a few members forecast Category 5 intensity.

Melissa is going to be moving over Jamaica from south to north & because of this, it will produce a catastrophic storm surge of 9 to 13 feet along Jamaica’s south shore, including Kingston Harbor and Norman Manley International Airport.

If that wasn’t enough, heavy and persistent rain will overspread Jamaica this afternoon from east to west. Once the rain begins to fall, it will not stop for about 3 days or so. Because of this, widespread rainfall totals of 20 to 30 inches (500 to 750 mm) are expected across much of Jamaica. Up to 40 inches (1000 mm) of total rainfall looks likely on the eastern side of Jamaica. These extreme rainfall totals will lead to catastrophic flooding and numerous landslides throughout the next several days.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of Category 4 to Category 5 strength winds, a very high storm surge & catastrophic flooding from rainfall could be one of Jamaica's most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of Jamaica, I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously.

Extensive damage to infrastructure, long duration power and communication outages and complete isolation of communities are all expected with Melissa.

Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for several days. Also be aware that you are going to be without power or any forms of communication to the outside world for potentially weeks.

FOR HAITI - Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti over the next few days. This will lead to extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities.

FOR EASTERN CUBA & THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS - Once Melissa passes across Jamaica, it will speed up in its forward motion & cross eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday night and Wednesday as a major hurricane.

This means that a significant storm surge, hurricane to major hurricane force winds and heavy rainfall can be expected across eastern Cuba on Tuesday night and then across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Those of you in eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas need to get ready for a pretty hard hit from a hurricane. Please take this hurricane very seriously if you are in eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

FOR BERMUDA - It remains quite possible that Melissa could impact Bermuda as a hurricane on Thursday night. I urge all interests on the island to monitor the progress of Melissa extremely closely.

10/26/2025

Posted Saturday Evening 10/25/2025: HURRICANE MELISSA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA

Reconnaissance aircraft investigating Melissa are finding that it is rapidly strengthening this evening. In fact, the most recent reports from them indicate that it is at least a 105-110 mph hurricane right now, even though the 8 pm advisory showed 100 mph maximum winds.

It is extremely evident on satellite imagery that Melissa is wrapping up quickly and it is now undergoing rapid strengthening. I fully expect it to be a major Category 3 hurricane by either late tonight or sometime on Sunday morning. Even more rapid strengthening will likely occur as we get into later Sunday and Monday & because of this, it looks extremely likely now that Melissa will be a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane when it directly impacts Jamaica on Tuesday.

We are now witnessing what will likely be a worst-case hurricane scenario for Jamaica. It is expected that Jamaica will see 48 consecutive hours of tropical storm force to hurricane force winds & extremely heavy rain starting tomorrow (Sunday). This will lead to the potential for catastrophic rainfall induced flooding & mudslides before the Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane conditions reach the island.

Those winds of up to Category 4 to Category 5 strength look to impact Jamaica during the day on Tuesday & this will lead to major to extreme damage on the island. A very large storm surge is also expected on the south coast of Jamaica.

It cannot be emphasized enough that this could be the strongest hurricane to ever directly hit the island in recorded history.

I implore those of you on the island of Jamaica to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have family or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously. Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for at least 4 days straight.

10/25/2025

Posted Late Saturday Morning 10/25/2025: Melissa is almost a hurricane & probably will become one by the end of today. All All indications are pointing towards Melissa rapidly strengthening over the next couple of days or so. I do think that Melissa will become at least a Category 3 and then Category 4 hurricane by Sunday and Monday & it is even possible that it could reach Category 5 intensity before it moves directly over Jamaica on Tuesday.

THOSE OF YOU IN JAMAICA - I cannot emphasize or stress enough that this is going to be an extremely bad hurricane hit on Jamaica. Severe impacts in the way of extremely strong winds and extremely heavy rain & catastrophic flooding are expected.

This is going to be a prolonged hurricane hit that lasts for between 72 and 96 consecutive hours. Yes, this means that there will be extremely heavy rainfall & tropical storm to hurricane-force winds on the islands for 3 to possibly 4 days straight! Rainfall totals on the order of 20 to 30 inches or more can be expected over a 4 day period & this is likely to lead to catastrophic flooding.

Even more concerning is that there is the potential for the core of the hurricane, which could contain between Category 3 and Category 4 winds (and maybe even Category 5 winds) to move directly over the island during the day on Tuesday as Melissa is pulled to the northeast & ultimately out of the Caribbean.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of both major hurricane conditions and catastrophic flooding could be one of Jamaica's most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of Jamaica, I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously. Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for upwards of 4 to 5 days straight.

For Those Of You In Eastern Cuba, The Central & Southeastern Bahamas & The Turks & Caicos: You might want to start getting ready for a major hurricane impact now, just in case. All of the reliable track model guidance seem to insist that eastern Cuba, the central & southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos may see major hurricane conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is something that should be taken extremely seriously if you are in eastern Cuba, the central & southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

Those Of You In Bermuda – It’s possible that Melissa could impact Bermuda late next week as the hurricane heads away from the Bahamas and into the open Atlantic. How close Melissa gets to Bermuda remains to be seen, but I urge all island interests to monitor the progress of Melissa extremely closely.

10/24/2025

Posted Friday Evening 10/24/2025: Melissa is now strengthening this evening & it is likely to undergo rapid strengthening this weekend. In fact, it's very possible, if not likely that will be a very major hurricane of Category 4 to even Category 5 strength by Sunday or Monday as its tracking to the south of Jamaica.

THIS IS A DIRE WARNING FOR THOSE OF YOU ON THE ISLAND OF JJAMAICA - It looks like this is going to be a prolonged hit that lasts between 72 and 96 consecutive hours. Yes, this means that there will be extremely heavy rainfall & tropical storm to hurricane-force winds on the islands for 3 to possibly 4 days straight! Rainfall totals on the order of 20 to 30 inches or more can be expected over a 4 day period & this is likely to lead to catastrophic flooding.

Even more concerning is that there is the potential for the core of the hurricane, which could contain Category 4 to even Category 5 winds to move directly over the island during the day on Tuesday as Melissa is pulled to the northeast & ultimately out of the Caribbean.

The impacts from Melissa in terms of both major hurricane conditions and catastrophic flooding could be one of Jamaica's most destructive hurricanes.

Once again, if you are on the island of , I implore you to take this hurricane extremely seriously. If you have friends or relatives on the island, please tell them to take this hurricane extremely seriously. Make absolutely sure that you are in a very sturdy and safe building & be aware that you will be in that shelter for upwards of 4 to 5 days straight.

10/24/2025

Posted Friday Afternoon 10/24/2025: Melissa is strengthening today & is very likely to become a within the next 24 hours. I do think that it's pretty likely that will strengthen into a major hurricane sometime late this weekend.

JAMAICA - YOU ARE IN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SEVERE IMPACTS FROM MELISSA THAT LASTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS!!

It is expected that Melissa will be moving very near or just south of from Saturday until Tuesday while it is rapidly strengthening into a major hurricane. This will put the island dangerously close to its very damaging core during Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

There's the very likely potential that the island will be impacted by hurricane conditions & extremely heavy rain for at least 72 consecutive hours starting on Saturday and lasting through Tuesday.

If that wasn’t enough, Melissa will turn to the northeast sometime on Tuesday, which means that major hurricane conditions could impact the island throughout Tuesday. This is in addition to the 48 to 72 hours of constant hurricane conditions that are expected on the island.

I cannot emphasize enough that Jamaica is very likely to be severely impacted by Melissa, both in the way of extremely strong winds and extremely heavy rain & catastrophic flooding. If you are on the island of Jamaica or have relatives or friends there, make sure you are in a very sturdy and safe shelter & be aware that you will be there for several days. Sadly, this is likely to end up being a humanitarian for Jamaica.

FOR EASTERN CUBA, THE CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS & THE TURKS & CAICOS - You might want to start getting ready for a major hurricane impact now, just in case. All of the reliable track model guidance seem to insist that eastern , the central & southeastern and the Turks and Caicos may see major hurricane conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

This is something that should be taken extremely seriously if you are in eastern Cuba, the central & southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

We are closely tracking Melissa & are frequently updating our Crown Weather subscribers. We welcome you to become a subscriber!! The link to subscribe can be found in the first comment of this post.

A subscription to Crown Weather PLUS is well worth the money & you'd be supporting a very small & independent weather forecasting business.

10/23/2025

Posted Thursday Afternoon 10/23/2025: Those of you on the island of need to watch Tropical Storm extremely closely as it could bring you some BIG TIME problems.

There is the very real threat for major to catastrophic flooding across Jamaica with similar flood issues possible across Haiti and the Dominican Republic over the next week or so.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches can be expected through this weekend across Jamaica. Additional rainfall totals of 10 to 20 more inches are possible across Jamaica during the first half of next week. This is, obviously, an extremely concerning situation for Jamaica as major to catastrophic flooding looks likely.

Additionally, tropical storm conditions are expected across Jamaica this weekend with hurricane conditions looking likely for Jamaica during the early part of next week.

As for the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba, rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches can be expected across most of these areas. The exception looks to be along the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti where 5 to 10 inches of total rainfall can be expected over the next week or so.

It goes without saying that I am extremely concerned for the island of Jamaica. Extreme precautions need to be put into place on the island to prepare for catastrophic flooding and hurricane-force winds.

Unfortunately, it may not be until about the middle part of next week that Melissa is pulled out of the Caribbean & sent northeastward. This would then put the Bahamas and especially the central and southeastern Bahamas at risk of hurricane conditions around the middle part of next week & it is something that I’m watching closely.

Become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today & stay up-to-date with the progress of Melissa. We not only cover tropical storms and hurricanes, but we also warn you about severe weather threats and when needed winter storm threats. A subscription to Crown Weather PLUS is well worth the money & you'd be supporting a very small & independent weather forecasting business. The link to subscribe can be found in the first comment.

10/22/2025

Posted Wednesday Afternoon 10/22/2025: Even though is a tropical storm right now, it is expected to strengthen significantly in the coming days as it crawls across the central and western to the south of .

It is not out of the question that Melissa will end up being a major of between Category 3 and Category 5 strength sitting over the western Caribbean to the south and southwest of Jamaica for several days this weekend into early next week.

Depending on the ultimate track of Melissa, it could directly impact Jamaica, central and eastern Cuba and some part of the Bahamas with significant to severe hurricane conditions late this week into next week.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT for those of you in the central and western Caribbean, Melissa is going to be a big, big time problem for you for at least the next 7 days bringing extremely heavy rain and strong winds to many of you.

If you would like to stay updated on the latest on Melissa, I highly encourage you to become a Crown Weather Plus subscriber. It's well worth the money & you'd be supporting a very small & independent weather forecasting business. The link to subscribe can be found in the first comment.

10/21/2025

Posted Tuesday Afternoon 10/21/2025: And we now have Tropical Storm over the central Caribbean.

It seems that there are all sorts of possibilities when it comes to where Melissa might end up tracking and how strong it might become. The reason for this is because the storm is expected to get caught in a weak steering environment & may await to be picked up the next weather system. The question becomes which weather system might pick Melissa up and send it northward out of the Caribbean.

I think that the first weather system, an upper level trough, will miss picking Melissa up & leave the storm milling around the central and northwestern for at least the next week. This means that we will probably be tracking Melissa for at least the next 7 to 10 days!

Quite a bit in the way of impacts for the islands of the central and northwestern Caribbean from Melissa, both in terms of heavy rainfall & also in the way of winds, depending on the track. This includes and the Islands. Eventually, the may also be significantly impacted by Melissa towards the middle and later parts of next week.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT for those of you in the central and northwestern Caribbean, this is going to be a marathon & not a sprint when tracking Melissa as it is likely to hang around for quite a while.

10/20/2025

Posted Monday Afternoon 10/20/2025: Invest 98-L, which is located in the eastern is very likely to organize over the next couple of days. Because of this, I think that it is likely we will see it become Tropical Storm by about Wednesday or so when it reaches the central Caribbean.

While all options in terms of a possible track are on the table, I think that we may see Invest 98-L reach the western or west-central Caribbean by this weekend. This would put Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands & the Bahamas at risk from this system.

Without a doubt though, Invest 98-L/Melissa is a definite concern for everyone in the central and western Caribbean, including Honduras, Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Because of this, if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling there, you really should keep a very close eye on the progress of Invest 98-L/Melissa throughout the coming days.

If you would like to stay updated on the latest on Invest 98-L/Melissa, I highly encourage you to become a Crown Weather Plus subscriber. It's well worth the money & you'd be supporting a very small & independent weather forecasting business. The link to subscribe can be found in the first comment.

10/19/2025

Posted Sunday Afternoon 10/19/2025: A tropical disturbance (Invest 98-L) is now crossing the Windward Islands & is showing some signs of organization.

Invest 98-L needs to be watched extremely closely this week if you live in the Caribbean or are traveling to the Caribbean as there are strong signals in the data that suggests it will develop into our next named tropical storm (Melissa) & very probably will become a hurricane. Time line for potential development looks to be during the middle and later parts of this coming week over the Central Caribbean.

I am very concerned that we could see a scenario where Invest 98-L gets stuck in the west-central Caribbean beginning next weekend. Should this occur, it could end up becoming a very significant hurricane & areas around Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica & the Bahamas would need to watch it extremely closely. Invest 98-L could end up being big trouble & it needs to be watched extremely closely.

Want to stay updated with the latest on Invest 98-L?? Become one of our Crown Weather Plus subscribers!! It's well worth the cost of the subscription & you'd be supporting a very small & independent weather forecasting business. The link to subscribe can be found in the first comment.

10/17/2025

Posted Friday 10/17/2025: It is looking increasingly more likely that a strong tropical wave now located over the Central Tropical Atlantic will develop into our next named tropical storm or even hurricane somewhere in the Caribbean next week. The next name on the list is Melissa.

It should be noted that this strong tropical wave will bring squally weather, including heavy rain & gusty winds, to the Windward Islands during this weekend & particularly on Sunday. This squally weather then looks to persist into Monday across the Windward Islands.

The big unknown right now is which part of the Caribbean (eastern, central or western) will this tropical storm or hurricane be milling about.

My advice to you is that if you live or are traveling to the Caribbean, you need to keep very close tabs on the progress of this system. This includes those of you in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize & all of Central America.

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