Crown Weather Services, Sturbridge, MA (2025)

05/04/2025

Posted Sunday Morning 5/4/2025: We began posting regular tropical weather discussions back on May 1st & we have just posted our most recent discussion on our website. This discussion is also sent out to Crown Weather PLUS subscribers.

Even though tropical development is not expected for at least the next week or so, I am watching the period during the week of May 19 for potential tropical development in the western Caribbean. The pattern does look favorable for development and it is something that needs to be watched.

Full discussion with all of the details on this can be found at https://crownweather.com/late-may-tropical-development-in-the-southwestern-western-caribbean-is-possible/ .

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

04/26/2025

Posted Saturday Afternoon 4/26/2025: I wanted to let everyone know that I am still planning on beginning to issue my regular tropical weather discussions this coming Thursday, May 1.

Want to get in on receiving our regular tropical weather discussions? Become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today!!

This is some of what you will get with a subscription:

- REAL TIME TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS & UPDATES: Frequently issued and includes information on potential tropical storm formation, information on any active tropical storms or hurricanes and marine weather updates and marine weather alerts. We also post short alerts highlighting any significant changes in regards to development/intensification of tropical systems.

- ONE ON ONE E-MAIL WEATHER SUPPORT: I will personally answer any questions you may have on how weather may impact your local area.

- LOCALIZED WEATHER PAGES: These specific local weather pages cover the coastal eastern United States, the Florida Peninsula & Panhandle, the US Gulf coast and the Caribbean.

- TROPICAL STORM & HURRICANE SPECIFIC PAGES: Each time there is a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or a Hurricane is in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, a specific webpage will be setup for that storm. These pages will contain very specific information about a storm, including wind potential, surge potential and local links to follow local news, evacuation orders, etc.

WHY YOU SHOULD SUBSCRIBE TO CROWN WEATHER PLUS - It's simple. We are personal, interactive, dedicated and experienced. We are not a giant weather corporation; just the opposite, we are a small weather service who will give you something that is valuable and potentially live saving.

Our commitment with you, the Crown Weather Plus subscriber, is to provide a top notch, value added weather service, which meets or exceeds your expectations.

To become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber, just go to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

04/17/2025

I wanted to make a post to let everyone know that we plan to begin sending out regular tropical weather discussions to Crown Weather PLUS subscribers on Thursday, May 1st, which is just 2 weeks from now.

For those of you who are not Crown Weather PLUS subscribers, but may be interested in subscribing - This is some of what you will get with a subscription:

- REAL TIME TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS & UPDATES: Frequently issued and includes information on potential tropical storm formation, information on any active tropical storms or hurricanes and marine weather updates and marine weather alerts. We also post short alerts highlighting any significant changes in regards to development/intensification of tropical systems.

- ONE ON ONE E-MAIL WEATHER SUPPORT: I will personally answer any questions you may have on how weather may impact your local area.

- LOCALIZED WEATHER PAGES: These specific local weather pages cover the coastal eastern United States, the Florida Peninsula & Panhandle, the US Gulf coast and the Caribbean.

- TROPICAL STORM & HURRICANE SPECIFIC PAGES: Each time there is a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or a Hurricane is in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, a specific webpage will be setup for that storm. These pages will contain very specific information about a storm, including wind potential, surge potential and local links to follow local news, evacuation orders, etc.

WHY YOU SHOULD SUBSCRIBE TO CROWN WEATHER PLUS - It's simple. We are personal, interactive, dedicated and experienced. We are not a giant weather corporation; just the opposite, we are a small weather service who will give you something that is valuable and potentially live saving.

Our commitment with you, the Crown Weather Plus subscriber, is to provide a top notch, value added weather service, which meets or exceeds your expectations.

To become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber, just go to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

03/28/2025

Posted Friday Afternoon 3/28/2025: *** WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM ILLINOIS & INDIANA SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE MISSOURI, KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE, ARKANSAS & NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ***

A cold front is expected to push eastward across the Ohio Valley, the Missouri Valley and the Mississippi Valley during Sunday. Ahead of this front, the atmosphere is expected to be fairly unstable and should lead to the potential for severe weather across a large area that stretches from the Ohio Valley southward to parts of Arkansas and Mississippi during Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

The severe weather threat may actually first occur across Missouri and Illinois from late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. This severe weather looks to be rather substantial from eastern Missouri into Illinois during Sunday afternoon with the likelihood of supercells occurring leading to a very large hail threat. In addition, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, some of which will be strong will also be a threat.

Further south, severe weather looks to develop across Arkansas by late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening and then push eastward into southeastern Missouri, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi during the nighttime hours of Sunday night. These storms are expected to be in an environment that’s favorable for tornadoes, some of which will be strong to violent, damaging wind gusts and very large hail.

The area that I have most concern about for all types of severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and very large hail is across far southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and northwestern Missouri – centered right around the Memphis area during late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

TURNING TO NEXT WEEK – The weather pattern is likely to be quite active in terms of severe weather during next week. In particular, Wednesday of next week is of concern in terms of a severe weather threat across western and central Kentucky, much of Tennessee, northern and central Mississippi and northern Alabama. A strong upper level weather disturbance is expected to move across the Midwestern United States during Wednesday and has the potential to produce a rather significant severe weather event across this part of the country.

03/20/2025

*** 2025 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST ***

- SUMMARY: This upcoming hurricane season looks to average a little above average in terms of the number of storms that occur. All indications seem to point towards neutral ENSO conditions occurring during the peak of the hurricane season. This combined with above average ocean temperatures in the Gulf and across the subtropics should help to produce an above average hurricane season. One factor that might negate a really active hurricane season is that the subtropics may end up more above average than the deep tropics leading to more stable air to occur. This, in turn, would lead to tropical systems having a more difficult time developing and waiting to develop until they are out of the deep tropics.

Additionally, I do think that this could be an East Coast season where most of the tropical storm and hurricane threats are concentrated along the East Coast of the United States. Two other areas stand out as potential areas of risk in terms of tropical storm/hurricane threats – One is the central Gulf Coast and the second is across the northeastern Caribbean.

- THE NUMBERS: 16 Named Storms, 7 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

- ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX FORECAST: I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 140, which signals that this will probably be an above average season.

- ENSO CONDITIONS: All data is pointing towards neutral ENSO conditions by the time we reach June, July and August. These neutral ENSO conditions are forecast to remain in place right through this Fall.

The prospects of neutral ENSO conditions is an enhancing influence on tropical activity during the hurricane season. This means that at least somewhat above average activity can be expected this hurricane season in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: Areas from the central and western Gulf through the Caribbean are currently warmer than average with below average ocean temperatures found across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. This overall look in ocean temperatures is cooler than what we saw at this time last year.

The latest model guidance seems to be pointing towards a scenario where areas of the Atlantic north of 20 North Latitude are warmer than average as compared to the deep tropics throughout this hurricane season. This could set up a scenario where tropical systems wait to really get going until they are north of 20 North Latitude or wait until they reach the Gulf.

- ANALOG YEARS: These are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2025 hurricane season may be like. They are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 & 2021

- LANDFALL THREAT FORECAST: There are three areas that I’m most concerned about for this upcoming season in terms of a tropical storm or hurricane impact.

The First Area Is the area from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. As I mentioned previously, all indications seem to be pointing towards this being an East Coast concentrated season for tropical storm or hurricane threats. Based on this, in addition to model guidance and analog data, I do think that a corridor from South Carolina and North Carolina northward to Southern New England could be an area to really watch.

The Second Area Of Particular Concern Is across the far northeastern Caribbean, including the far northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Model guidance and analog data seems to be pointing towards the possibility of any tropical systems moving westward from the central and eastern tropical Atlantic to begin curving west-northwest and northwest just before they reach the Caribbean. This leads to the potential for these tropical systems to directly impact the northeastern Caribbean before they either head further west towards the Bahamas or the East Coast of the United States or curve northward into the open Atlantic.

Another Area Of Some Concern Is the area from the northwestern Caribbean northward to the central Gulf coast where any tropical disturbances moving westward may begin to strengthen by the time they reach the northwestern Caribbean and then head for the central Gulf Coast.

Even though your area may have a low or medium risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten the low or medium risk areas.

Finally, we will begin sending out regular tropical weather discussions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Monday, May 12th.

03/15/2025

Posted at 12:30 pm CDT Saturday 3/15/2025: Potentially Dangerous Tornado Watches are now in effect for large parts of Alabama, Mississippi and far eastern parts of Louisiana.

This all means that the tornado outbreak is now beginning & unfortunately, everything is now on track for a very serious tornado outbreak to occur across Mississippi and Alabama over the next 8 to 12 hours or so.

Severe storm cells over southwestern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana are the ones to really watch as they push into a better environment for tornado production as they move northeastward.

Environmental conditions across especially eastern Mississippi and all of Alabama are extremely favorable for these storms to be tornado producers when they get there.

This means that numerous strong to violent tornadoes are expected across Mississippi and especially over eastern Mississippi throughout this afternoon and continue into this evening. These storms that will be producing strong to violent tornadoes will then affect much of Alabama beginning later this afternoon and continue through the first half of tonight. Western parts of the Florida Panhandle and western and central Georgia will then be impacted by storms producing tornadoes tonight.

If you are anywhere in Mississippi, Alabama, western and central Georgia or the western Florida Panhandle, I urge you to keep extremely close tabs on the severe weather this afternoon and tonight. This outbreak is nothing to mess with and is going to be extremely bad. Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings, including NOAA Weather Radio and having wireless emergency alerts enabled on your phone. Make sure you know where you are sheltering if a tornado is about to hit you.

03/14/2025

Posted Friday Afternoon 3/14/2025: *** UPDATE REGARDING TOMORROW'S LIKELY TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI & ALABAMA ***

I wanted to post a quick update regarding the likelihood of a tornado outbreak centered across eastern Louisiana, all of Mississippi and all of Alabama.

This looks like the real deal as the Storm Prediction Center has issued a “HIGH RISK” for severe weather in an area from about Jackson, Mississippi to Birmingham and Montgomery, Alabama for tomorrow.

Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which will be long-track and potentially violent in intensity (EF-3 or higher in strength) are expected throughout Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. This extremely dangerous tornado threat is expected to begin across eastern Louisiana and much of Mississippi by early Saturday afternoon and continue across Mississippi throughout the entirety of the afternoon on Saturday. The extremely dangerous tornado threat is then expected to move into Alabama by late Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening and continue across Alabama throughout all of Saturday evening.

If you are located anywhere in eastern Louisiana, anywhere in Mississippi or anywhere in Alabama, have multiple ways to receive severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. This includes NOAA Weather Radio and having wireless emergency alerts enabled on your phone. Also, make sure you know where your safe shelter is going to be if severe weather impacts you.

This is all in addition to the expected severe weather outbreak that’s expected from later this afternoon into tonight across southern Iowa, much of Missouri, much of Illinois, western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Numerous tornadoes, some strong to violent, widespread destructive winds of 75 to 100 mph and large hail are expected. This is something that should not be ignored and everyone across these areas should also have multiple ways to receive severe weather warnings.

03/14/2025

Posted Thursday Night 3/13/2025: *** LATEST UPDATE ON THE MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THAT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT; A PARTICULARLY HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON & SATURDAY NIGHT FROM LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA & GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ***

A very strong upper level trough of low pressure is expected to track from the Rocky Mountains through the Plains States. At the same time this is occurring, a strong jet stream will move southeastward leading to the formation of a very strong surface low pressure system. This strong low pressure system is expected to track from the central Plains states into the upper Midwestern United States by Saturday. Out ahead of this storm system, a warm front will push northward leading to very humid Gulf air to move northward into the lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the lower Ohio Valley. This humid air with dew point temperatures of 65 to 70 Degrees will combine with plenty of unstable air to produce widespread severe weather. Additionally, very strong low-level wind shear will help to cause these storms to rotate leading to a significant tornado risk.

- FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON & FRIDAY NIGHT – Severe thunderstorms are likely to begin developing during the mid and late afternoon hours of Friday and then continue through all of Friday night.

The area of most concern during late Friday afternoon into Friday night will be across the middle Mississippi Valley eastward into the lower Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valleys. This includes St. Louis, Memphis, Nashville and Louisville. Widespread damaging winds with gusts of over 75 mph and tornadoes will be a definite threat. The overnight severe thunderstorm and tornado threat is a definite concern since many will be sleeping as severe weather moves in. This means you should have multiple ways of receiving severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings.

Another area of concern will be during the well after midnight hours of Friday night into the early morning hours of Saturday across the eastern half of Mississippi and across western, central and northern Alabama where severe thunderstorms may be a threat. Damaging winds, tornadoes, some of which will be strong, and hail will all be a significant threat. This is very concerning since this will be occurring during the late night hours of Friday night when many will be sleeping.

- SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY BAD IN TERMS OF A PARTICULARLY HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK: A particularly high-end severe weather outbreak continues to look very likely on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night that will be concentrated across eastern Louisiana, all of Mississippi, all of Alabama, western and northern Georgia and the western and central Florida Panhandle.

Morning strong to severe thunderstorms may linger across northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama into Tennessee, but the atmosphere should recover behind this severe weather. As this recovery occurs, supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by Saturday afternoon across the Deep South starting across eastern Louisiana and much of Mississippi during the early afternoon hours and spreading into Alabama by the mid and late afternoon hours of Saturday. This severe weather is then expected to spread into western and northern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by Saturday evening and continue into Saturday night. These storms should not be messed with at all as they will produce strong to violent tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

This is going to be a very dynamic and very strong storm system as the combination of moisture, unstable air and strong wind shear will produce a textbook severe weather setup.

If you are located anywhere from eastern Missouri southward to eastern Louisiana and eastward through Mississippi, Alabama, western and northern Georgia and the western and central Florida Panhandle and northward into Tennessee and southern Ohio, review your safety plans now. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings, including NOAA Weather Radio and phone alerts, identify your safe shelter, and stay updated on the latest severe weather updates.

03/13/2025

Posted Wednesday Evening 3/12/2025: *** A MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON & FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE & LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY & THE TENNESSEE VALLY & ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY (***A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK***) FROM LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA & GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ***

- FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON & FRIDAY NIGHT: A widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms producing tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are expected across much of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley. This is going to be just the start of what will be a multi-day very significant severe weather outbreak.

A very strong low pressure system pushing northeastward from the southern Plains states on Friday afternoon into the western Great Lakes region will interact with an unstable air mass to produce severe thunderstorms producing widespread wind damage starting from eastern Kansas and western Missouri southward to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during Friday afternoon.

This severe weather is expected to expand northeastward across much of Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky and western Tennessee by late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. It should be noted that the low-level wind shear will increase by Friday evening leading to the likelihood of supercells producing fast-moving tornadoes across eastern Missouri, eastern Arkansas, central and southern Illinois, western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Strong tornadoes and widespread very damaging winds are likely in this particular area.

As we get into the overnight hours of Friday night and the early morning hours of Saturday, a second area of severe thunderstorms is likely to take shape across northern and central Mississippi and northern and central Alabama. Damaging winds, tornadoes, some of which will be strong, and hail will all be a significant threat. This is very concerning since this will be occurring during the late night hours of Friday night when many will be sleeping.

- SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER: A high end severe weather outbreak is looking likely on Saturday into Saturday night across an area from the Ohio Valley southward through much of Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. The area I am most concerned about in terms of very significant severe weather is across much of Louisiana, much of Mississippi, much of Alabama and western Georgia.

As that very strong low pressure system over the upper Great Lakes moves to the northeast, a second low pressure system is expected to form over the Tennessee Valley during the day on Saturday. This second low pressure system will help to pull some warm and very humid air northward from the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. At the same time this is occurring, cold air aloft will lead to a very unstable air mass from the Ohio Valley through the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast.

Once the morning severe weather pushes eastward, it is expected that a much more important severe weather event will occur during Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The area I am most concerned about in terms of a very significant severe weather event with strong to violent tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail is across much of Louisiana, much of Mississippi and much of Alabama during Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and then across Georgia during the overnight hours of Saturday night.

Severe weather is also expected further north across the Ohio Valley during Saturday afternoon into Saturday night where damaging winds and hail will be the main threat.

03/09/2025

Posted Sunday Afternoon 3/9/2025: *** A ROBUST LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE & LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST ***

An extremely strong low pressure system is expected to push northeastward from the central Plains states into the upper part of the Midwestern United States during Friday and Friday night. The weather forecast guidance seems to be honing in on the potential for plenty of unstable air to be shoved as far north as Iowa, southern Minnesota and even southern Wisconsin during Friday afternoon and Friday evening. This unstable atmosphere could combine with strong amounts of low-level wind shear to lead to a severe weather outbreak that covers a large area from the lower Great Lakes southward all the way to Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

All-in-all, this looks like it could be a classic textbook type severe weather outbreak and is one that needs to be watched extremely closely.

FOR FRIDAY – It appears that a cold front will push eastward from the Plains states into the Mississippi Valley. Out ahead of this front, the atmosphere will be warm and quite unstable leading to more than enough energy to produce severe thunderstorm activity. In addition to this, the wind shear associated with this storm system is expected to be quite strong leading to the very real potential for rotating storms over a large area.

The area I am most concerned about in terms of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, hail and very strong wind gusts on Friday into Friday night is across central and southern Missouri, much of Arkansas, much of Louisiana, eastern Texas and northern and central Mississippi.

TURNING TO SATURDAY – That strong cold front is expected to continue pushing eastward into the southern United States and the lower Ohio Valley. The combination of plenty of unstable air and strong amounts of wind shear could lead to severe weather to be concentrated from the central Gulf Coast northward through the Tennessee Valley into the lower Ohio Valley during Saturday into Saturday night. Widespread damaging winds and tornadoes look to be a particular concern with Saturday’s severe weather threat.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT this looks to be a potential classic severe weather outbreak for March due to the expectation of strong upper level dynamics, plenty of unstable air and lots of wind shear that will help storms to rotate. My advice to you is to not be scared but instead prepare for the late week and early weekend severe weather threat. Review your severe weather and tornado safety plans and keep up-to-date on the latest regarding this severe weather potential.

02/28/2025

Posted Late Friday Afternoon 2/28/2025: *** SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA & WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ***

I am watching the severe weather potential for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night very closely and with quite a bit of concern.

A strong upper level trough of low pressure is expected to eject eastward into the southern United States from the Rocky Mountains by Tuesday. Out ahead of this upper level trough, there is expected to be the presence of a strong low-level jet stream along with very strong amounts of wind shear across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day on Tuesday. This looks to be a pretty classic early Spring severe weather setup that needs to be monitored extremely closely.

A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms looks to develop by midday Tuesday across areas of the far eastern parts of the Southern Plains states. This squall line will push eastward reaching the Mississippi River from southern Missouri to eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi by late Tuesday afternoon where they will interact with a strong low-level wind shear environment. This means that tornadoes, some strong, will be a definite threat with this squall line. Supercells forming out ahead of the main squall line is a possibility and if this does occur, it would lead to a more significant tornado situation and is something that needs to be watched very closely.

I urge all interests across southeastern Missouri, central and eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern and eastern Louisiana and northern and western Mississippi, especially where Tuesday is Mardi Gras with plenty of celebrations occurring.

02/27/2025

Posted Wednesday Evening 2/26/2025: *** SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY & ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US NEXT WEEK ***

It appears that we will be keeping close tabs on the possibility of severe weather across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley as soon as Tuesday of next week. In fact, the Spring severe weather season could be shaping up to be a very active one across the Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley and across parts of the southeastern United States.

- TUESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: Warm and quite humid air is expected to push northward from the Gulf into areas from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. There is uncertainty, however, as to how robust an eastward moving storm system will be pushing into the southern Plains States. A more amplified and stronger storm system would mean a more robust severe weather threat while a less amplified storm system would lead to some sort of severe weather threat from east Texas into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley.

That all said, there seems to be enough of a risk of severe weather across east Texas, central and northern Louisiana, central and southern Arkansas, much of Mississippi and western Tennessee to be concerned about & is something to keep close tabs on.

- WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: The severe weather threat is expected to push into the southeastern United States during Wednesday in the form of an eastward moving squall line.

- AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE THIS SPRING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES: There are some robust signals in the data that seem to suggest that we are not only in for a active Spring from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeastern United States, but that the severe weather season could get an early start this year.

A look at the longer range model guidance seems to suggest that there will be enhanced ridging of high pressure over the southeastern United States leading to quite a bit of moisture to be pulled northward from the Gulf into the southern and central United States.

This humid air mass looks to potentially combine with an active southern part of the jet stream leading to an active storm track. Plentiful amounts of wind shear, lots of rising air and high amounts of moisture looks to produce an active early start to the severe weather season. This all means that March and April could be particularly very busy in terms of severe weather across the Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley and the southeastern United States.

Crown Weather Services

05/04/2025

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