Crown Weather Services, Sturbridge, MA (2025)

10/09/2025

Posted Thursday 10/9/2025: *** A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AREAS FROM COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA & THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ***

A strong cold front is currently pushing through the Southeastern United States & likely will make it as far south as the Florida Peninsula over the next day or two. This front will set up a strong temperature gradient along it and help to develop a low pressure that forms offshore of Florida’s East Coast by late Friday.

As we get into Saturday, it is expected that the coastal storm system will be located just offshore of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. This low pressure system will create gusty winds and heavy rain across eastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina during the day on Saturday.

Turning to Saturday night and Sunday, strong onshore winds with gusts of 50-60 mph can be expected along the North Carolina Outer Banks and across the Tidewater of Virginia. Moderate to major coastal flooding is likely at the time of high tide along the North Carolina Outer Banks and across the Tidewater of Virginia during Saturday night and Sunday. Additionally, major coastal flooding is also very possible across the lower Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night and Sunday.

Additionally, during the day on Sunday, that low pressure system is likely to strengthen even more as it tracks northward reaching coastal parts of Virginia . This will lead to heavy rain, wind gusts of up to 60 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding, beach erosion and very high surf to occur from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and points north, including the Tidewater of Virginia, Chesapeake Bay, the Jersey Shore, Long Island and Southern New England.

Significant impacts from this storm are likely to last through Monday into Tuesday from the Jersey Shore and Long Island through Southern New England before the low pressure system weakens and heads out into the open Atlantic.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT this is expected to be a long-duration coastal storm & because of this, there will be significant coastal impacts in the way of coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles from the North Carolina Outer Banks to Southern New England. Additionally, heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 4 inches and strong onshore winds with gusts of 50-plus mph can be expected along the coast from the North Carolina coast to Southern New England can be expected.

Everyone from eastern North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic states to Southern New England need to keep very close tabs on this storm and be ready for a long-duration storm that lasts 2 to 3 days or so.

AS FOR TROPICAL STORM JERRY - It now looks like that Jerry will head a little closer to parts of the Leeward Islands as compared to what was forecast just yesterday. Because of this, the islands of Antigua and Barbuda are very likely to see tropical storm conditions starting later this afternoon and continuing through tonight. Those of you on the islands of Antigua and Barbuda should be ready for tropical storm conditions.

Elsewhere across the Leeward Islands, Jerry should pass just barely far enough east to miss the rest of the Leeward Islands with tropical storm force winds. That said, any further west shifts in the track of Jerry would put tropical storm force winds over St. Martin and Anguilla during tonight into Friday morning. My advice for those of you on the islands of St. Martin and Anguilla is to prepare for tropical storm force winds, just in case.

Additionally, a tail of moisture on the backside of Jerry is also expected to impact all of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands leading to squally weather to occur from tomorrow through Saturday. Some of this moisture may also reach as far west as Puerto Rico later Friday into Saturday. Any persistent squally rain bands on the back side of Jerry could lead to localized flooding across the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands as rain totals of 2 to 5 inches can be expected.

Finally, Jerry does not pose a threat to Bermuda as the storm is expected to turn to the north and northeast well east of the island.

10/08/2025

Posted Wednesday 10/8/2025: All signs are pointing towards a coastal storm that will impact the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas to Southern New England beginning on Saturday and lasting through early next week. This storm looks to bring some significant impacts, including moderate to major coastal flooding, gusty onshore winds and heavy rain to areas including coastal parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic States, as well as Long Island and Southern New England.

What looks to occur is that a low pressure system will form just offshore of the South and North Carolina coastlines on Saturday and then move northward near coastal parts of the Mid-Atlantic states during Sunday. From there, this storm system may end up moving close to Long Island and the south coast of New England on Monday before it turns eastward and moves out away from the US East Coast.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM - It is very likely that this storm system will bring days of very gusty winds, soaking heavy rainfall, moderate to major coastal flooding, rough surf and beach erosion. These impacts would start in the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend and then spread northward into Southern New England early next week.

Based on what I’m seeing right now, moderate to even major coastal flooding could occur this weekend from the North Carolina Outer Banks northward through the Chesapeake to the Jersey Shore. Also, wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph seem most possible right along the coast from the Carolinas northward to Southern New England. Finally, expect a soaking rain with amounts of 2 to 5 inches possible this weekend from eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia northward to coastal parts of New Jersey.

Those of you along the coastline from the Carolinas northward through the Mid-Atlantic coastline to Long Island and Southern New England should be ready for a long-duration storm that lasts several days. This means that you should expect prolonged coastal flooding that occurs over multiple high-tide cycles, especially for the area from North Carolina Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore & possibly as far north as Long Island and Southern New England. Also, you might want to prepare for a prolonged gusty wind event with wind gusts of up to 40-60 mph, which could cause some damage.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A significant coastal storm looks increasingly very likely to occur this weekend from the Carolinas and points northward to as far as Southern New England.

09/30/2025

Posted Tuesday 9/30/2025: Hurricane Imelda is expected to track right over the island of Bermuda tomorrow night bringing with it the likelihood of over 100 mph wind gusts to the island, along with heavy rain and very rough seas.

Elsewhere, it looks as if there will be some locally heavy rain this weekend along the northern Gulf Coast as a piece of energy breaks off from Imelda and heads into the Gulf by late this week. At this point, I don't think that we'll see any sort of tropical develeopment in the Gulf, but rain seems likely to occur this weekend across immediate coastal areas of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. While it seems possible that a majority of heavy rain may stay offshore, 1 to 4 inches of rain is a possibility across these areas this weekend.

Also, there's the possibility that there could be some sort of tropical development next week in the deep tropics in-between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For now though, this is just something to keep an eye on if you are in the northern Leeward Islands or the northeastern Caribbean.

09/28/2025

Posted Midday Sunday 9/28/2025: It is looking much more likely today that Future Imelda will turn sharply to the east as we get into Monday and Tuesday and thus head away from the Southeastern United States. This is, obviously, great news for the Carolinas as the impacts from the storm will be much, much less than what was anticipated even a day or two ago.

FORECAST IMPACTS:
FLORIDA'S EAST COAST – Any tropical storm force sustained winds will very likely stay well offshore of the east coast of Florida as TD 9 (Future Imelda) tracks to northwest and parallels Florida’s East Coast over the next couple of days. Instead, I think that we’ll see occasional heavy showers that’ll affect the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast and Space Coast of Florida mostly during the day on Monday. Some of these showers may produce wind gusts of up to 40 mph in squalls. Overall, not a big deal at all. These squally conditions will quickly come to an end by Tuesday morning.

THE CAROLINAS – Even though TD 9 is now expected to remain far to the south of the Carolinas, heavy rain still looks to be a threat as the moisture from TD 9 interacts with a stationary front in the area.

This means that rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches can be expected along the immediate South Carolina coast as well as along the immediate coast of southeastern North Carolina from today through Wednesday. This rain will lead to scattered areas of flash flooding. In addition, gusty winds in squalls, rough surf and beach erosion can be expected along the entire coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina over the next 2-3 days.

BERMUDA – Direct impacts from Future Imelda are a possibility late this coming week should this system head directly to the east-northeast. This means that heavy rain, tropical storm to hurricane force winds and extremely rough seas are a distinct possibility around Thursday and Friday. It’s definitely something to watch closely, if you are on the island of Bermuda.

Imelda’s rich plume of tropical air will collide with a stalled front along the coastal Carolinas Monday and Tuesday, bringing the threat of several days of heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding ahead of the storm along the coastal plains of the Carolinas from Charleston, South Carolina, to Wilmington and Morehead City in North Carolina. Rainfall totals should generally stay in the 3- to 5-inch range for these areas.

UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE STILL NOT DONE WITH THE HURRICANE SEASON once Humberto and Imelda exit stage right late this coming week. In fact, I still think that we’re going to be tracking tropical systems through the month of October and very probably well into November.

The latest European weekly models is pointing to the possibility of a brief break in activity during the week of October 6.

Beyond this, the European weekly models seem to suggest activity will pick up big time starting during the week of October 13 in the area that includes the Gulf, the northwestern Caribbean and the southwestern North Atlantic. This includes the Yucatan, Cuba, the north-central and northeast Gulf Coast, Florida & the Southeastern US coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda. This very active tropical activity may then continue through the week of October 20.

In fact, the European weekly model is forecasting 140 percent of normal activity during the week of October 13 and 160 percent of normal activity during the week of October 20.

So, unfortunately, I think that we’re looking at yet another year with a lot of tropical storm and hurricane season late in the hurricane season.

09/26/2025

Posted Late Friday Afternoon 9/26/2025: Satellite imagery as of late this afternoon indicates that the disturbance that was Invest 94-L continues to organize with a developing low-level circulation noted near eastern Cuba. That said, this system still does not meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone, however, it will likely become one by sometime on Saturday. Also, this system is likely to bring tropical storm conditions to the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and then impact parts of the southeastern United States early next week.

Because of all of this, the National Hurricane Center has "upgraded" Invest 94-L to Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 as of 5 pm EDT/4 pm CDT today.

All-in-all, there are no significant changes to what I wrote earlier.

It still looks likely that the central and northwestern Bahamas will be impacted by tropical storm conditions throughout this weekend.

I do still think that PTC 9 will likely become a hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas on Monday and crosses the Gulf Stream. I think the highest threat area in terms of a direct hit from this system will be along the South Carolina coast on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a hurricane of Category 1 or low-end Category 2 strength.

In addition to the potential for impacts from tropical storm to hurricane force winds and surge issues along the South Carolina coast on Monday into Tuesday, I am also quite concerned about the potential for heavy rain and flood issues across the Lowcountry of South Carolina into central and eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia. In fact, it looks like the setup is favorable for a Predecessor Rain Event to occur out ahead of Imelda this weekend across southern Virginia, central and especially eastern North Carolina and across the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

Now, we may end up adding in the heavy rainfall from Imelda into the mix and this could lead to some big time flood issues across southern Virginia, a large part of North Carolina and eastern and northeastern South Carolina. What concerns me is that there’s the possibility that Imelda could slow way down or stall near the coastal Carolinas on Monday and Tuesday and exacerbate the rainfall issues.

Right now, storm rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts look likely across southern Virginia, central and eastern North Carolina and central and eastern South Carolina. It needs to be emphasized that these rainfall totals will very probably increase in the coming days, especially if this system does slow way down in forward speed or stall near or along the South Carolina coast.

Over the next day or two, I should be able to tell you in more detail exactly which parts of the Carolinas will see the most impactful conditions. I strongly urge everyone from southeastern Georgia through the Carolinas to southern Virginia to closely monitor the updates of this system. If it were me, I would start preparing now for tropical storm and hurricane conditions along the coast & for the potential of very serious rainfall produced flash flooding for areas along the coast and areas inland across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

A full update on PTC 9/Imelda will be sent out to all Crown Weather Plus subscribers around around midday or so Saturday. Want to become a Crown Weather Plus subscriber & stay up-to-date with what will be Imelda, check out the link to subscribe in the comments.

09/25/2025

Posted Thursday Afternoon 9/25/2025: First things first, I do think that Invest 94-L (Future Imelda) is a potential very real threat to areas from northeast Florida and coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into southeastern Virginia sometime early next week. That being said, there is still a ton of uncertainty as to how strong this system will become and where it will ultimately track. Invest 94-L is definitely a system that needs to be watched extremely closely.

This means that those of you in northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia need to watch this system extremely closely as a hurricane threat early next week is a very real possibility.

I am updating our Crown Weather subscribers on the latest with both Invest 94-L and Humberto with regular weather updates. Link for our discussions and how to become a Crown Weather subscriber can be found in the first comment.

09/24/2025

Posted Wednesday Evening 9/24/2025: Tropical Storm Humberto has formed about 550 miles or so to the east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

It is expected that Humberto will head in a west-northwesterly to northwesterly direction over at least the next 2-3 days. A turn towards a northerly direction looks quite possible as we get into late this weekend and early next week.

As I mentioned this morning, I do think that while this system will very likely stay well east of the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States, it does have the very real chance of being a hurricane threat to Bermuda sometime during the first half of next week.

Additionally, I do think that we will very likely see Humberto and Invest 94-L (which will probably develop into Imelda in the coming days) will be in very close proximity with each other leading to them to undergo a process called the Fujiwhara effect. This means that they could rotate around each other & this means that the ultimate forecast of both Humberto and Invest 94-L remain extremely uncertain.

I wrote extensively on what a headache of a forecast it will be trying to figure out how Humberto and Invest 94-L will interact. The link for the discussion is found in the comments.

09/23/2025

Posted Tuesday 9/23/2025: Between Hurricane Gabrielle & the two tropical disturbances (Invest 93-L & Invest 94-L) that we're watching, I do think that Invest 94-L is the one to keep a close eye on.

Invest 94-L, which is now moving through the Lesser Antilles is likely to bring squally weather to both the Leeward and Windward Islands throughout the rest of today. This squally weather will affect much of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout Wednesday and will probably last into Thursday.

Beyond this, all interests in the Bahamas and along the East Coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Invest 94-L for early next week. That said, there is still A LOT to figure out with this system & how the overall weather pattern will affect it. Also, there’s the question on how Invest 94-L will interact with Invest 93-L. All-in-all, a very uncertain forecast.

09/22/2025

Posted Monday 9/22/2025: The Atlantic looks like it has woken up as we have not only Major Hurricane Gabrielle, that will pass to the east of Bermuda, but also two other tropical disturbances that we're watching closely.

The first disturbance, which is located just east of the Leeward Islands is one that should be watched closely if you are in the Bahamas & also along the East Coast of the US, especially from coastal North Carolina to the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. In today's weather update for Crown Weather subscribers, I went into quite a bit of detail on how the weather pattern over the eastern US & the western North Atlantic might affect this system. The link to become a Crown Weather subscriber is in the comments.

The second disturbance is located halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa has a better chance of developing over the next few days. That said, this disturbance will likely stay to the north of the Lesser Antilles & not be a threat to the Caribbean. This disturbance may, however, become a threat to Bermuda in about a week from now.

09/18/2025

Posted Thursday 9/18/2025:
FIRST - Gabrielle is on life support today & it looks likely that this system will struggle to develop or strengthen over at least the next couple of days. Beyond this, some strengthening of Gabrielle is possible sometime this weekend.

It is highly likely that Gabrielle will not be a threat to the Caribbean Islands and will turn into the Atlantic well before reaching the Bahamas and the United States.

As for Bermuda – Those of you on the island of Bermuda will want to keep a close eye on the forecasts surrounding Gabrielle. While most model guidance do suggest a path that keeps it east of Bermuda, the very disorganized and weak state of the storm suggests that there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where a new center may ultimately form. Because of this, I would keep a close eye on this storm, in case it does impact you early next week.

SECOND - Squally weather is expected to continue across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through tonight. These squally conditions will then affect Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Be aware that flash flooding and mud slides will definitely be a threat.

THIRD - I am keeping a close eye on the possibility of tropical development in the area from the western Caribbean through the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf during the week of September 29.

Very detailed information on all of this are being sent to our Crown Weather Plus subscribers. Look in the comments on how to become a subscriber to Crown Weather Plus.

09/14/2025

Posted Sunday 9/14/2025: It appears that a coastal storm will affect areas from Eastern North Carolina & the Outer Banks through the Mid-Atlantic States with locally heavy rain, gusty onshore winds & some coastal flooding from Monday until about Thursday morning.

Weather analysis today reveals that there is a low pressure system that is located about 175 miles to the southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.

This low pressure system is expected to strengthen some and head towards the outer banks of North Carolina by Monday night. It is then expected that this low pressure system will sit and spin in the area between the outer banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia during Tuesday and Wednesday before it weakens and heads out into the open Atlantic.

There is likely to be a tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system and an area of high pressure located over the northeastern United States. This will lead to some quite gusty onshore winds occurring across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, coastal Maryland and much of Delaware during Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind gusts on the order of 30-45 mph can be expected at times, especially along the immediate coast.

In addition, it is also looking likely now that there will be heavy bands of soaking rain to occur across much of eastern North Carolina, central and eastern Virginia, much of Maryland and much of Delaware. Across these areas, rain totals of 1 to 3 inches can be expected from late Monday until Thursday morning.

Finally, the onshore gusty winds will probably lead to at least some minor coastal flooding occurring across eastern North Carolina and the outer banks, eastern and southeastern Virginia, coastal Maryland and coastal Delaware during the high tides on Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Now, will this low pressure system become a sub-tropical or tropical storm? At this point, I think that this low pressure system will probably remain non-tropical in nature. That being said, some of the model guidance does hint at the possibility of it acquiring some sub-tropical elements to it around Tuesday. Any sub-tropical development of this system looks to be relatively short-lived.

Those of you in eastern North Carolina and the outer banks, eastern and southeastern Virginia, eastern Maryland and Delaware, be aware that the weather is going to be very inclement starting as soon as Monday afternoon, but especially during Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect on and off heavy rain, gusty easterly winds that gust up to 30-45 mph at times and overwash at the beaches at the time of high tide.

09/12/2025

Posted Friday 9/12/2025: A tropical wave now pushing off of the coast of Africa will very slowly develop over the next few days as it heads westward. It is then expected that this wave will turn to the northwest towards the open Atlantic where it may then develop later next week. All indications are that this system is not going to be a threat to the Caribbean, Bahamas and the US.

Even though things are quiet right now in terms of tropical development chances, things may gradually become more active starting late next week, but especially during the week of September 22. The model guidance are showing the potential for some robust tropical disturbances moving westward across the deep tropics during this time frame. Where these disturbances go and how strong they become are an unknown right now as it is way too soon to make those types of determination.

Crown Weather Services

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