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[9/29] - Today is the day Tropical Storm Imelda passes on by well-away from us. But as it does so, it is expected to bri...
09/29/2025

[9/29] - Today is the day Tropical Storm Imelda passes on by well-away from us. But as it does so, it is expected to bring in some occasional rain squalls across the Florida Peninsula. Areas that could see more rain squalls is along the Florida East Coast. These squalls could bring wind gusts up to 40 mph and is like our typical afternoon storm. They could bring some heavy rainfall as well and some areas could see flooding.

High temperatures this afternoon will be somewhat cooler for many as a cold front is situated in a SW/NE axis and will follow Imelda tomorrow. But temperatures in the low to upper 80s are expected along the Panhandle and North Florida regions while upper 80s to lower 90s are expected along Central, South FL, and the Keys.

Have a good day!

[9-28 11pm Update] - This will be my last update on T.S. , but all tropical alerts have been dropped. There may be some...
09/29/2025

[9-28 11pm Update] - This will be my last update on T.S. , but all tropical alerts have been dropped. There may be some gusty winds and dangerous rip currents along the East Coast on Monday but that's about it. A challenging forecast from the start but thankfully things have turned out for the better.

Great group effort by bringing out the big fan to push it away from us.😂
09/28/2025

Great group effort by bringing out the big fan to push it away from us.😂

Today marks 3 years since Hurricane Ian made landfall in Cayo Costa, FL. Ian had brought catastrophic winds for several ...
09/28/2025

Today marks 3 years since Hurricane Ian made landfall in Cayo Costa, FL. Ian had brought catastrophic winds for several hours as it made landfall, significant storm surge from 10-15' south of the Barrier Islands in Southwest Florida. Ian had produced historic rainfall amounts up to nearly 27" causing major flooding over inland areas. Restoration efforts are still ongoing and will likely continue through the next several years. A storm that won't be forgotten.

In the wake of Ian, harmful algal blooms developed across the Gulf Coast as excess nutrients from debris and other hazards went into the Gulf. At least 150 people were killed and over $110 billion in total damages to infrastructure and agriculture.

[9-28 Tropical Update] - Waking up to some better news as the latest forecast has shifted yet once again but continuing ...
09/28/2025

[9-28 Tropical Update] - Waking up to some better news as the latest forecast has shifted yet once again but continuing to turn away from the Southeastern US. I do think that there will still be some minor coastal impacts particularly along the Space Coast with wind gusts as high as 40-55 mph from some rain bands if they make it along the coast. Alongside rip currents and very minor storm surge/coastal flooding. Elsewhere along the East Coast between the Space Coast; ranges from West Palm to as north as Fernandina Beach may experience high surf, rip currents, and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

I’ll still keep an eye but things are looking a lot better for everyone!

[9/27 5pm TD NINE] - 📌 NHC has updated their forecast for TD Nine. There has been a slight nudge to the west with their ...
09/27/2025

[9/27 5pm TD NINE] - 📌 NHC has updated their forecast for TD Nine. There has been a slight nudge to the west with their latest forecast but the forecast cone still does NOT include the East Coast. I do think this stays offshore, but as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane. Remember, impacts can be felt outside the cone and I'll explain that below:

📌 Despite that slight shift toward the west, I am anticipating some impacts outside the cone. Impacts are forecasted to begin along the East Coast as early as Monday morning and continuing through at least Tuesday morning. A tropical storm watch is active from Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. I am anticipating wind gusts of 45-55 mph more in particular along the Space Coast. Along the Treasure Coast and Sun Coast, could see wind gusts of 25-40 mph.

📣 I'm not concerned still and there's no reason for you to be concerned either. There will likely be periods of gusty windsIf you live along the East Coast, I would get some sandbags in the event for storm surge. Continue to keep an eye on the forecast as it may continue to change. More updates to come.

[9/27] - We'll get the 5pm NHC update soon, but one thing that I am keeping an eye on is the hourly positions of TD 9. T...
09/27/2025

[9/27] - We'll get the 5pm NHC update soon, but one thing that I am keeping an eye on is the hourly positions of TD 9. The current forecast has TD 9 moving more toward the north, but the current location of TD 9 suggests this is still moving more toward the NNW. The computer models have also adjusted very slightly to the west in the latest outputs.

If this continues, this could slightly increase wind gust potential along areas of the east coast, (45-50mph) risk for storm surge increases slightly, and could see some additional rain bands. Still no reason to be concerned and it further serves my point on keeping an eye on the forecast as things can change. We'll see what NHC's 5pm update suggests.

[9-27] - ⚠️ A Tropical Storm WATCH has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line ...
09/27/2025

[9-27] - ⚠️ A Tropical Storm WATCH has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

📌 Tropical Depression 9 (formerly PTC 9) has been designated by the NHC. TD 9 is expected to work toward the NW and gradually intensify. It is forecasted to REMAIN offshore while becoming a hurricane around Tuesday morning and may bring coastal impacts along the East Coast in terms of gusty winds, high surf/rip currents, and potentially minor storm surge starting as early as Monday and continuing through Tuesday. For those living near the coastline along the East Coast from West Palm Beach to as north as Jacksonville, I would look into getting some sandbags in case there is some minor storm surge flooding around high tides. There will likely be some occasional rain bands that bring gusty winds up to 40 mph.

📌 Again, I am expecting very minor impacts with some areas seeing winds up to 40 mph on Monday, like our typical afternoon storms but a bit longer in duration. Nothing to worry about and nothing to lose sleep over. Just keep a close eye on the forecast these next few days and we'll go back to our typical weather around Wednesday or Thursday.

[9/27] - Scattered showers and some thunderstorms have developed this morning along North Florida. But increasing covera...
09/27/2025

[9/27] - Scattered showers and some thunderstorms have developed this morning along North Florida. But increasing coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon along the Florida Peninsula. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds at times.

High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s along the Panhandle and North Florida regions. And lower 90s found along Central Florida and South Florida.

I'll have a tropical update this afternoon.

[9-26 PTC 9] - NHC is now issuing products on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. This is formerly Invest 94L. Another note, m...
09/26/2025

[9-26 PTC 9] - NHC is now issuing products on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. This is formerly Invest 94L. Another note, movements and developments of PTC Nine through the next 12-24 hours will play a role on the forecast. This is a hype-free zone and what I say is based on NHC forecasting and my explanations as a meteorologist.

These products provide us a forecast cone and also an idea of how strong nine's future is. Nine is forecasted to become a hurricane and will be in proximity to the Florida East Coast. While the cone currently includes portions areas of NE Florida, I am anticipating some coastal impacts in the form of minor storm surge especially along the St. Johns River basin, high surf along the Atlantic, and some occasional strong gusty winds with periods of rain along the East Coast. Just because you're not in the cone does not mean you don't see impacts. Again, some coastal impacts are possible by the late weekend.

The forecast can STILL change, especially with what the system does through the next 12-24 hours. The spread in computer models in the short-term is not ideal but further serves my point in why the short-term movements matter. The locations of the upper-level pressure systems and even Humberto will also play a role in this system's future. Again, it's a complex and tricky forecast that continues to be worked out. While the threat for a Southeastern U.S. landfall (Carolinas area) is increasing, it is not set in stone.

For instance, if PTC Nine ends up being somewhat slower than forecast, Hurricane Humberto's influence could cause a change in forecast path. If the forward speed of PTC Nine is faster, then a landfall appears more likely. Again, showing how difficult the forecast is even in the short-term.

Hurricane Hunters are flying out to PTC Nine and Humberto to improve the forecasts. Again, I'm taking this day-by-day given the forecast is still somewhat complex and things can change these next few days. I'll have another post tomorrow.

In addition to your hurricane supply kits, NexGen is a great resource to have as it provides an efficent way and to protect you, your friends, and family members. It includes severe weather alerts AND tropical alerts. Warnings to Hurricane Warnings, it is a great tool. It is not an app, don't have to worry about downloading anything. WeatherCall NexGen is $15/yr, which is about $1.25/month. By signing up, you will get weather alerts, such as phone calls and text messages issued by the NWS to your phone in seconds. With a phone call, you will hear my voice letting you know of what's going on. You can set your personal location online and change it at any time. For those who don't live in Florida, you too can use this great service for your personal location. It works across the United States. It is absolutely worth it as you can get other additional features such as lightning alerts.

[9-26 PM Tropics Update] - Still monitoring the progress and forecast evolution of Invest 94L. Odds remain at 90% as it ...
09/26/2025

[9-26 PM Tropics Update] - Still monitoring the progress and forecast evolution of Invest 94L. Odds remain at 90% as it starts to move toward the north-northwest. I am going to have a full in-depth tropical update around 5pm as I believe NHC will have some additional products by that point. Those along the East Coast should continue to monitor the forecast through the next few days. Nothing to lose sleep or worry about but is worth monitoring.

[9-26] - Good morning everyone. We've got showers and storms ongoing along the Panhandle and Big Bend region. This will ...
09/26/2025

[9-26] - Good morning everyone. We've got showers and storms ongoing along the Panhandle and Big Bend region. This will keep temperatures on the "cooler" side with upper 70s and lower 80s today. Definitely beneficial rain too as there is a drought ongoing along the Panhandle and North Florida regions.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Peninsula as well, focused along the east coast. High temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s with humidity making it feel much hotter. Some storms could produce gusty wind and heavy rainfall.

I'll have another tropical update later today and share my thoughts.

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