Florida's Weather

Florida's Weather I am a Florida native, meteorologist, providing accurate forecasts to the entire State of Florida!

I go in-depth with easy to understand analysis and provide hype-free information.

[8-8] - Don’t look back but we’ve got “cooler” temperatures today! 😂 Numerous showers and storms are expected to develop...
08/08/2025

[8-8] - Don’t look back but we’ve got “cooler” temperatures today! 😂 Numerous showers and storms are expected to develop this morning and afternoon. With the cloud cover this will keep temperatures from getting too warm. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Along the Panhandle we can expect isolated to scattered storms developing this afternoon.

Have a good day!

[8-7 Tropical Update] - While things are active in the tropics, things are looking good for us here in Florida and even ...
08/07/2025

[8-7 Tropical Update] - While things are active in the tropics, things are looking good for us here in Florida and even throughout the U.S. We'll deal with this trough currently sitting over S. FL and the Keys. This enhances our rain chances for the next several days. For the Panhandle, enhanced rain chances will start by Friday.

[8-6] - Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along the Florida Panhandle and will continue this morning an...
08/06/2025

[8-6] - Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along the Florida Panhandle and will continue this morning and into this afternoon. Some storms will bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Showers and storms will also form along the Peninsula. Coverage will start on both coasts, but will be maximized along the inland and west coast regions.

Another hot day is expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Some more clouds along the Panhandle and North Florida regions will keep things in the mid to upper 80s. But it will be muggy everywhere, the humidity is nasty.

Have a good day!

[8-5] - Mother Nature has a little extra pep in her step this evening as storms are still ongoing as of 10:47pm and we a...
08/06/2025

[8-5] - Mother Nature has a little extra pep in her step this evening as storms are still ongoing as of 10:47pm and we are seeing some additional storms fire along Southwest Florida. We’ll see these storms continue through the next 1-2 hours before tapering down. Just a bit of an extra nuisance before going to bed with some rumbles of thunder

[8/5 AM Tropical Update] - The tropics continue to heat up as we have Dexter and 2 other areas being monitored for futur...
08/05/2025

[8/5 AM Tropical Update] - The tropics continue to heat up as we have Dexter and 2 other areas being monitored for future development. Dexter will move away and will pose no threat to the US besides some fish in the Atlantic. The forecast for the area closest to us has trended in a good way for us here in Florida as this should steer away from Florida with westward movement at first, but then turning toward the north.

However, there is this trough just offshore the Bahamas that is *not* currently highlighted by the National Hurricane Center. Some computer model ensemble members are hinting that it tries to form into a low pressure system in the Gulf. Regardless, it will bring enhanced rain chances across the Florida Peninsula by Thursday. Its future once it moves into the Gulf is uncertain. I'll be watching the forecast closely to make sure it doesn't pull some sneaky magic.

The big picture, the tropics are heating up and while there are a few areas we'll need to watch, there is no immediate concern for anyone in Florida. I'll have more updates and no-hype forecasts.

[8/4 PSA] - Model hype and long-range model garbage is making the rounds again and I'm getting several questions. I get ...
08/05/2025

[8/4 PSA] - Model hype and long-range model garbage is making the rounds again and I'm getting several questions. I get it, tropics can be scary and I do my best in alleviating the concerns by being straight up honest with y'all. There's one area closer to home that I'm watching but everything else is looking fine. If you're not sure what's going on in the tropics, look at the NHC forecast at nhc.noaa.gov. The peak of season is approaching and long-range computer models out 7+ days love to spit out random things like an alpaca. As you've seen from my posts, I don't like posting anything after 7 days because computer model accuracy lowers substantially with each day. Computer models and ensembles are a tool, and at a certain point in a run they become rubbish, eventually become fantasy and have no merit and their outputs are egregious.

Pages that do post those long-range models knowing that they are inaccurate on a consistent basis do it for clicks, shares, and monetary reasons. It satisfies an algorithm in some way that gets people to see it. Don't fall for the bait. There are definitely good pages out here and they do what I do. For those who know the Denis Phillips rulebook... Rule 7, don't freak out. We're fine right now.

[8-4 Radar Update] - Some nasty storms are ongoing along the inland sections of Southwest Florida and areas of Central F...
08/04/2025

[8-4 Radar Update] - Some nasty storms are ongoing along the inland sections of Southwest Florida and areas of Central Florida. Over 1000 lightning strikes in the last 15 minutes, very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and even hail. These storms will continue to form and slowly move toward the northwest. Storms should taper off a bit by 8-9pm.

[8/4 Tropical Update] - In the tropics an area closer to our neck of the woods is being monitored for potential developm...
08/04/2025

[8/4 Tropical Update] - In the tropics an area closer to our neck of the woods is being monitored for potential development in the next few days. Right now there is nothing, but a low pressure is expected to form by the middle part of this week. Odds of development within the next 7 days is at 30%. This future low pressure system is expected to move toward the west or northwest. I'll continue to have updates daily and will keep you in the loop on what is going on in the tropics.

The future track is uncertain but since it is closer to our neck of the woods, it does need some watching. It may be a few days until we know more about what this area does. Environmental conditions look to be somewhat favorable for future development. It's nothing to lose sleep over and plus we have plenty of time to just watch. While computer models don't have much in terms of development, systems like these closer to home can be a bit sneaky. Very warm ocean waters with the Gulf stream in close proximity and lower wind shear can aid in development.

Now would be a great time to review your hurricane supply kits. We don't have immediate threats but given that we are inching closer to the peak of season, it is always a good idea to make sure you are prepared.

[8/4] - We've got an active and busy day as a stalled front brings lots of showers and storms along the Panhandle region...
08/04/2025

[8/4] - We've got an active and busy day as a stalled front brings lots of showers and storms along the Panhandle region. We've seen heavy rain and some strong storms yesterday. We expect more heavy rainfall and flooding along the Panhandle. We should also see scattered thunderstorms developing along the Peninsula late this morning and into this afternoon. Both coasts could see somewhat decent coverage of showers and storms.

Temperatures will be plenty warm along the Peninsula, with heat index values exceeding 105F. Along South Florida, a heat advisory is in effect as heat index values may exceed 108F. Along the Panhandle, cloud coverage and rain is keeping things cooler.

Have a good day!

08/03/2025

Some personal news - I am excited to announce that I am working with Hillsborough County as their weather intern for their Office of Emergency Management. I’ll be working and helping out in any way I can. And also, if anything were to threaten our state, you will still get my lengthy and detailed posts, nothing will change with my page! 🙂

Putting both meteorology and emergency management skills together, it’s a great combination and hopefully we won’t have any sort of threats this year.

[8/3 Tropical Update] - Well things are more colorful now... 3 areas are now being monitored for potential tropical deve...
08/03/2025

[8/3 Tropical Update] - Well things are more colorful now... 3 areas are now being monitored for potential tropical development in the Atlantic. The first area I want to discuss is in the Main Development Region shaded in orange. Things have trended a little bit better with a potential track out to sea, but we'll still need to monitor its future just in case.

The area shaded in red will continue to move away from the mainland U.S. The new area shaded in yellow will need to be watched but doesn't look like a concern to us at the moment.

I'll be keeping a watch on all of them just in case, but know that we are inching closer to the peak of hurricane season and these outlooks may become more common. Regardless I'll be watching them all.

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