12/16/2025
Why I doubt the NBA Draft is rigged
The NBA draft being rigged is a topic that has come into question recently. Luka Doncic being trade to the Lakers, for a steal whilst the Mavs won the lottery to get highly touted first pick Cooper Flagg. In an era of post truth and conspiracies being rife, I thought I’d address this.
Looking at the NBA draft; there is media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and a Big 4 accounting firm who audit are in attendance for the drawing. To believe it’s rigged, it would mean you subscribe to the fact that multiple people from dozens of organisations across the country collude flawlessly every year for decades. And on video.
*”But they’re all in on it”*
It would require NBA franchise reps not speaking up about the NBA rigging the draft to benefit another teams.
It would require media who would love to break the story of draft rigging keeping quiet about this conspiracy. Any media member would kill to break such a career making story. As an example Pablo Torre was received seven times his normal viewers after breaking the Kawhi and Aspiration fiasco.
*”But accountants and consultants are corrupt, remember Arthur Andersen”*
Yes, I’m not here to defend the morality of Ernst and Young. Arthur Andersen did indeed get caught helping Enron fudge their books. The example doesn’t hold.
The draft lottery is observed by multiple parties (league officials, team reps, media, sometimes independent witnesses etc). Enron’s corruption took place in private offices and boardrooms, so it’s easier and less risk to falsify. Financially the upside was huge; in the year 2000 alone, Arthur Andersen received $52m from Enron. Lastly, they got caught after nine years. Some say the NBA draft rigging has gone on for four decades, surely the NBA would have had whistleblowing if this were the case.
*”It’s convenient that Wemby who’s French and a quiet personality went to San Antonio who have many French fans and had stars who aren’t big on the spotlight”*
San Antonio were joint favourites for Wemby. I also fail to see why the league would rig Wemby to San Antonio as they were a famously poor rating spinner in the finals.
One of the two tied most probable pluralities for the number 1 pick was the Rockets. Houston is a bigger market than San Antonio and they have a big residual Chinese fan base from Yao Ming. The other most probable plurality was Detroit; the Pistons already had a number 1 pick PG in Cade and are a bigger market with a team ethos built on defence.
*”It’s convenient that players end up at their hometown team like LeBron and Rose”*
This is confirmation bias, there are plenty of times that a number 1 draft pick’s hometown was high up in the stakes. Examples include; 2004 Dwight to the Hawks, 2011 Kyrie to the Nets, 2015 KAT to the Knicks and 2020 Ant to the Hawks were all theoretically possible. It is confirmation bias, as we tend to remember when it happens.
Hometown is a pretty weak lever, it is novel initially but there’s only so many times a commentator can say “he grew up nearby”. Additionally, it stands to reason that a highly touted pick like LeBron or Rose would have sold tickets wherever they went.
In the case of Derrick Rose, this was the first NBA draft since the Tim Donaghy scandal became public, if you believe the NBA rigged it this year; you’d have to believe they openly rig it every year. Additionally, the team making the fifth pick of the draft was Memphis (where D-Rose went to college), so you could justify local fan base regardless of whether the Grizz or Bulls got the first pick.
In the case of Bron, the Cavs were tied plurality favourites and of the teams picking in the top five of the 2003 draft, probably the NBA’s least desired spot for LeBron: mid-sized market, limited TV reach, shaky ownership.
The other teams picking first five in the NBA were Detroit (champs following season with Larry Brown leading Team USA), Toronto (huge growth market with Vince), and Miami (strong ownership, Riley, star appeal) were all more attractive. If there’d been a conspiracy, I think LeBron goes to Denver as the new mountain-time star with constant marquee matchups against Kobe, Shaq, KG, Duncan, Dirk, Nash, etc.
There is theory called the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy. This is where a Texan shoots multiple times at a barn, then draws a bullseye around the closest cluster of holes, to justify his amazing aim. I think there is a tendency to do the same in these conspiracy theories, where people may backfill reasons why the team who received the number 1 pick were the beneficiaries of foul play.
