Weather Nerds Of Alabama

25/09/2025

The latest model runs are still in strong agreement that developing Imelda will threaten the Southeast Coast early next week. While this scenario is increasingly probable, it's not set in stone. Invest 94L has yet to form a well-defined center [but it’s getting there], and until this happens, models won't have the ideal initiation conditions of the system which can lead to larger errors the farther out in time you go. A second complicating factor is Humberto which will influence the track and intensity of Imelda. If you live along the Southeast Coast and Inland, keep a very close eye on the forecast moving forward and listen to local officials. This forecast was posted Thursday afternoon, September 25

25/09/2025

This week's drought monitor, taken Tuesday, shows a worsening situation overall. Only 5% of the state is not abnormally dry or worse, compared to 8% last week, and the severe drought had gone from 1% last week to 7% this week. Obviously some excessive rain has fallen the last couple of days in a few spots.

25/09/2025

There's an increasing probability of a tropical system either impacting or potentially making landfall along the Southeast Coast in 4-5 days, next Monday-Tuesday, September 29-30. Models continue to shift west showing a possible landfalling scenario during this timeframe. While the likelihood of this is increasing, it's not set in stone. Invest 94L has yet to for a well-defined center, and until this happens, models won't have the ideal initiation conditions of the system which can lead to larger errors the farther out in time you go. A second complicating factor is Humberto which will influence the track and intensity of Invest 94L - which will become Imelda. If you live along the Southeast Coast and Inland, keep a very close eye on the forecast moving forward and listen to local officials. This forecast was posted Thursday morning, September 25

25/09/2025

There remains a good amount of discrepancy between model guidance for what is expected to be .

Overnight data took a tick west with more models indicating a North/South Carolina impact.

Right now we can split potential outcomes into TRACK A vs. TRACK B. The trend has been more towards the track A idea, but confidence remains LOW and wind shear would generally lead to less favorable conditions for a strong storm with this track.

Our team is working on a full breakdown that will go out on the Clarity Weather app later this morning.

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24/09/2025

A slight risk of flooding exists into north Alabama today.

24/09/2025

Twin tropical systems will develop off the Southeast U.S. Coast later this week into the upcoming weekend! Invest 93L and Invest 94L have a high probability to develop into tropical systems later this week. While there's high confidence in development, there's a lack of confidence in where these systems will track, especially given the close proximity of one another. These two system will likely influence the path/track and intensity of each other. Despite the uncertainty in the evolution, the close proximity to the Southeast U.S. Coast raises eyebrows and does ratchet up the concern level. All interests from Florida to the Carolinas as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda need to keep an eye on these developing systems as impacts are possible later this weekend into next week. Right now is watch and wait mode as the details are ironed out. Once more confidence is gained in possible scenarios, then we can get into the action mode - *if* necessary. If you live along the Southeast mid-Atlantic Coast, make sure you stay up-to-date with the latest forecasts. The next names on the list are Humberto and Imelda🌀🌀

19/09/2025

Something new...hazards outlook showing the chance of heavy rain in parts of the south next week

19/09/2025

18/09/2025

Interesting https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/09/the-hottest-summer-days-in-the-u-s-have-barely-warmed-in-the-last-40-years/?fbclid=IwY2xjawM5Y81leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFmdEdxTHNDV0JaRUFUa3FaAR5m5T4N99cvjv1-DxfDQgvAa6NjMVFDoByyUxe_QXR3TMOh9S71iTtZrBhwsA_aem_9WNSBYpVmlRNAQlNzq_8rg

The total warming of the hottest 3 days in each summer month averaged across 400 mostly-airport weather stations is only 1.2 deg. F over 40 years.

18/09/2025

When to expect the best colors of all