Hurricane season 2024

Hurricane season 2024 Informational page on latest hurricane for hurricane season

TROPICAL UPDATE - The first tropical wave of the year has exited the coast of Africa, with no development forecasted.Whi...
05/19/2025

TROPICAL UPDATE - The first tropical wave of the year has exited the coast of Africa, with no development forecasted.

While an early-season tropical storm is possible in the Eastern Pacific through the end of May, top weather models indicate a quiet pattern for the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC or 7:15pm est Mon May 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has come off the coast of West Africa earlier
today. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 12N and its axis is near 18W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 12N between 13W and 21W.

Invest 97L could become Debby. All of the Intensity Guidance forecast model runs generated since the Invest designation ...
08/01/2024

Invest 97L could become Debby. All of the Intensity Guidance forecast model runs generated since the Invest designation and the determination of the location of the center 2 hours ago by the National Hurricane Center are showing a Category 2 Hurricane on Monday or Tuesday.

Hurricane Beryl, a CAT 4 hurricane, is expected to track towards the Yucatán by Thursday/Friday. Beryl might continue on...
06/30/2024

Hurricane Beryl, a CAT 4 hurricane, is expected to track towards the Yucatán by Thursday/Friday. Beryl might continue on the WNW track towards the Gulf of Mexico. Residents along the Texas coast should monitor this storm closely. There is still uncertainty of this storm’s track after it reaches the Yucatán. Check back later this week for the latest.

Visit the NHC website or social media pages for more information.

2:00 PM 06/30/2024

6/30/24 @ 7:55amESTBERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPEC...
06/30/2024

6/30/24 @ 7:55amEST
BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...

8:00 AM AST Sun Jun 30
Location: 10.6°N 53.9°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

LIVE BROADCAST @ 8:30amEST TO COVER MODELS!

THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXPECT A STRONG MAJOR HURRICANE WITH OVER 130mph WINDS AND POSSIBLE 140mph WINDS!

The model consensus is Hurricane Beryl will peak at about 125 mph (high end Category 3) sustained winds and hold at near...
06/30/2024

The model consensus is Hurricane Beryl will peak at about 125 mph (high end Category 3) sustained winds and hold at nearly steady peak intensity during the period from 36 to 60 hours from now. Most of the long range models have it crossing the Yucatán and emerging in the Gulf of Mexico and re-strengthening. New model guidance shows less weakening in the central and western Caribbean which is concerning for the Yucatán and even for Texas where a landfall is becoming theoretically more likely with a stronger storm and corresponding northward shift in the track. However, it’s too soon to put any probability on a U.S. landfall.

As of 90 minutes ago Beryl had 86 mph sustained winds and minimum pressure of 986 mb. I suspect it it will be above 100 mph and below 980 mb in the next NHC advisory.

Based on the NHC forecast which peaks at 120 mph sustained winds, the wind speeds on hilltops and leeward hillsides in the Hurricane Warning area of the Windward Islands where winds will be about 30% stronger could see sustained winds of 155 mph or even higher (well into Category 5 equivalent strength) at higher elevations and with even higher gusts - possibly about 180 mph. That would not be survivable in most structures. If you know anyone in such locations unable to evacuate, reach out now.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect beginning Sunday night for...

* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

Invest 95l now has a 90% chance of developing in 24-48 hours. One concerning trend I notice is agreement on a hurricane...
06/28/2024

Invest 95l now has a 90% chance of developing in 24-48 hours. One concerning trend I notice is agreement on a hurricane strike in the Windward islands. Interests there should start preparing. In the long term, there is lots of uncertainty.

**The picture below is a model simulated out to 4 days. Always seek official info from the National Hurricane Center.

INVEST 95L UPDATE: Things are about to get interesting y’all. Like I was saying yesterday, the NHC has officially given ...
06/28/2024

INVEST 95L UPDATE: Things are about to get interesting y’all. Like I was saying yesterday, the NHC has officially given our tropical wave #2 an invest tag as it has an 80% chance of forming into a tropical storm or greater. Here are the latest spaghetti models showing the track it might take… Also included are intensity predictions derived from computer ensembles. Notice how some future tracks head into the Gulf by next weekend…👀 Also notice how computers suggest this will be not only the first hurricane of the season, but potentially a major hurricane

Four different models showing we will likely see another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico take a very similar track...
06/20/2024

Four different models showing we will likely see another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico take a very similar track as Alberto did towards Mexico. Tropical rain showers will be possible for South Texas as this system organizes and eventually tracks westward in a few days. Check back later this weekend for the latest.

Visit the NHC for more information.

5:30 PM 06/20/2024

Round 2 next week🚨PM GULF UPDATE (6/19): Alberto & beyond: Now there’s a NEW development outline from the National Hurri...
06/20/2024

Round 2 next week

🚨PM GULF UPDATE (6/19): Alberto & beyond: Now there’s a NEW development outline from the National Hurricane Center. A *MEDIUM* chance of formation thru 7 days is possible in the same spot, following TS Alberto in the Gulf.
This is a SEPARATE system to watch.

The orange polygon outline is the medium chance of formation highlighted by the NHC, through the next 7 days. The environment is conducive for more tropical development, and the waters are warm. Some activity is possible, and the main global ensemble models are hinting at more moisture for parts of Texas and possibly more attempts at tropical organization.

We’ll need to watch closely.

6/19/24 @ 9:50amESTPTC1 IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE, BUT IMPROVING! IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO BECOME A TR...
06/19/2024

6/19/24 @ 9:50amEST
PTC1 IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE, BUT IMPROVING! IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INTO MEXICO!
VERY LARGE WIND FIELD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 48hrs! MAJOR FLASH FLOOD RISK IS POSSIBLE!

TIme of arrival on storm
06/17/2024

TIme of arrival on storm

The system in the Bay of Campeche now has a 70 percent chance to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Regardless, ...
06/17/2024

The system in the Bay of Campeche now has a 70 percent chance to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Regardless, very heavy rain, coastal flooding and gusty winds are all on tap for the lower and middle Texas coastal region.

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Victoria, TX

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