12/16/2021
AN URGENT WARNING TO SCHOOLS: I have written spot on predictions for Cold River Journal during this pandemic. I urge the districts to consider going to a remote option for at least the month of January. Omicron will be the dominant variant by New Year's or earlier, plus after the two holidays will spread rapidly and deeply. While this variant may continue to prove to be slightly less deadly than Delta. It will create at least 10 times more cases at a time. Since the majority of the students are not vaccinated, and Omicron will evade the vaccines, the chance for a widespread outbreak will be almost assured. Already we have seen high numbers from Delta, but Omicron is doubling every 2 or 3 days as you may know, while other covid variants took 2 weeks to achieve the same rate of spread. I am one of the staff who suffered through Covid obtained in the school from students not properly masking. Despite the efforts of staff, it is common for many students to be without masks in halls and during classes at some point, and at lunch, so stopping the spread will not be possible, as we have seen this fall. From the data I am seeing, I think it could possibly burn itself out fast with such rapid spread. I urge you to consider a temporary remote option to prevent staff and students from suffering a super spreader event that will most likely occur after the holidays.
If you would multiply our cases so far by 4 or more, I think you would agree this could easily leave the school in a massive staff shortage throughout the month, and possibly lead to more people at home sick or in isolation than in the buildings, which would surely cause a sudden close down. I think a planned remote option would be easier to institute, and more effective as less people would be sick at the same time. All the doctors and scientists including those in South Africa have already seen prior infection and even boosted fully vaccinated people have very little protection against Omicron. Makes one wonder if these jabs are even working or worth the risk. Even if the virus proves to be more mild, 10 day isolation will still be mandated. This will also leave many staff with little or no leave even with the allotted Covid extra days of leave, since many of us have already used up 5 days or more of the extra Covid leave. Early data suggest Omicron will infect as many people in one month as Delta has in 6. While those infected with Delta have infected 2 others, preliminary data from Africa suggests Omicron infected people will spread this variant to 50 people. Going remote through January, perhaps until as late as Winter break could stop a massive all at once outbreak. While students and staff may still get infected in their daily lives, this would prevent the school from being a super spreader location where perhaps half the building gets infected in one week.
While I understand the difficulties of remote learning, even a short 4-6 week remote schedule may help to prevent overloading the hospitals even more. Even more worrisome is the emergence of Flu in the past few days at the same time. I think upon returning, many of the students would have developed natural immunity after contracting the virus from family members and in the community, filling the buildings with many who are immune. If the infected students had mild illness, they could still attend remote classes and would have a more structured learning environment than just testing positive then being sent home. If we return in early January, very few will have any immunity, and the new variant will be peaking in numbers. The U.K, has already seen a rapid spread of this variant, the Holidays will only exacerbate this. In the U.S., in just the last week, the virus has grown by 6 times from .5% of cases to 3% of cases, and is expected to double about 2 or 3 times per week. It is expected to make up 50% of cases by Christmas, just as families are gathering.
As I am sure you know, colleges in Vermont, New Hampshire, New York and Massachusetts, and several others, have already moved to remote options. I believe a closing of the schools will happen either voluntarily in a planned fashion, or in an unplanned fashion when staffing levels dip too low. With an already major shortage of willing subs, only the truly desperate will be willing to sub in January. Alternate schedules and less than ideal options have been instituted many times already this year due to teaching staff shortages and lack of subs, Omicron will only make this much worse.
While in school learning is clearly the best option, given these circumstances I believe schools will find remote learning for January and probably February will actually be the best option for the students as staff shortages and huge numbers of students being out for quarantine is not a good situation for students. It will also have further negative effects for the long term viability of school staffing.
I know this is a difficult choice, and I do not make these suggestions lightly, but I feel obliged to share these concerns in the interest of everyone in the district and the community.
