Troy D Weather

Troy D Weather Weather enthusiast - Everything weather for NJ/NYC/Philly & the Northeast. Model runs, snow maps, storm alerts & deep dives 🌨️🌩️ Thank you for your support!

I am a weather enthusiast focused on providing weather reports and discussion for New Jersey and the surrounding area. I have been passionate about weather since I was very young and continue to enjoy following forecasts and creating my own. I studied Meteorology for a time at Rutgers University, though I do not have a degree in it. I believe my experience and dedication to weather and climate all

ows me to provide accurate forecasts and conduct weather discussions for the tri-state area. Weather is an ever-evolving and ever-changing dynamic that I find fascinating. I will work to provide forecasts to the best of my knowledge and not hype or mislead regarding what will and what is happening outside our windows. I hope you all enjoy this page and share in my love of the weather around us! Feel free to message me with any questions or comments.

Honoring those who made the ultimate sacrifice 🇺🇸
05/25/2026

Honoring those who made the ultimate sacrifice 🇺🇸

Tuesday downright brutal with mid to high 90's possible across the I-95 in the northeast. NBM, ECMWF, & AIFS aligned. 🥵
05/15/2026

Tuesday downright brutal with mid to high 90's possible across the I-95 in the northeast. NBM, ECMWF, & AIFS aligned. 🥵

2 day torch coming Tuesday/Wednesday 🥵
05/14/2026

2 day torch coming Tuesday/Wednesday 🥵

Do you know about my Troy D Weather Substack yet?Hyper-local NJ/NYC/Philly forecasts, model runs, snow maps, storm alert...
05/13/2026

Do you know about my Troy D Weather Substack yet?

Hyper-local NJ/NYC/Philly forecasts, model runs, snow maps, storm alerts & deep dives 🌨️🌩️ — all in one place. Free to subscribe!

Everything weather for NJ/NYC/Philly. Model runs, snow maps, storm alerts & deep dives 🌨️🌩️. Click to read Troy D Weather, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

ECMWF Seasonal Forecast: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonThe latest ECMWF SEAS5 model (issued May 1, 2026) forecasts below...
05/11/2026

ECMWF Seasonal Forecast: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The latest ECMWF SEAS5 model (issued May 1, 2026) forecasts below-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the June–November 2026 season.

Forecast mean: 5.7 hurricanes
1993–2025 climate average: 7.4 hurricanes

This difference is statistically significant at the 5% level. The forecast shows normal typhoon activity in the Western North Pacific and above-average activity in the Eastern North Pacific.

This is one seasonal model’s outlook. Actual activity will depend on evolving ocean and atmospheric conditions. Always follow official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center during the season.
(Source: ECMWF SEAS5)

When is the I-95 back above 80° across the northeast? GFS says next Saturday…meanwhile ECMWF has us waiting until Tuesda...
05/10/2026

When is the I-95 back above 80° across the northeast? GFS says next Saturday…meanwhile ECMWF has us waiting until Tuesday, May 19th. We’ll see how it unfolds as we get closer! 🌡️

Have to look toward Day 12 (May 19) for some truly spring temps around the northeast. All ensembles hinting at some ridg...
05/08/2026

Have to look toward Day 12 (May 19) for some truly spring temps around the northeast. All ensembles hinting at some ridging which should bring at least seasonal temps our way. 🌡️

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 🌊ECMWF SEAS-5 (May 1 initialization) shows a clear, persistent dry signal across ...
05/05/2026

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 🌊

ECMWF SEAS-5 (May 1 initialization) shows a clear, persistent dry signal across the Main Development Region for both June-Aug and Sep-Nov. This is a classic precursor for reduced activity under an emerging El Niño.

My forecast:
• Named Storms: 11-15
• Hurricanes: 5-8
• Major Hurricanes: 2-4

Below-average season expected.
Drier MDR = higher shear, less moisture, stronger ridge. Maps attached.
What do you think — quiet year ahead?

Weekend storm graze? Euro showing storm mainly offshore on Saturday night but the NAM is much rainier 🌧️
04/30/2026

Weekend storm graze?

Euro showing storm mainly offshore on Saturday night but the NAM is much rainier 🌧️

Chilly Weekend Washout | NJ • NYC • Philly ☔️Enjoy today’s lingering brightness before an offshore low delivers a raw, r...
04/24/2026

Chilly Weekend Washout | NJ • NYC • Philly ☔️

Enjoy today’s lingering brightness before an offshore low delivers a raw, rain-soaked weekend with temperatures plunging well below late-April norms.

Hyper-local forecasting for NJ, NYC & Philly

⚠️ FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AMEDT TUESDAYSub-freezing temperatures as low as 22° expected.Fro...
04/20/2026

⚠️ FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT TUESDAY

Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 22° expected.

From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday.

Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

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Warren, NJ

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