09/08/2026
The September ECMWF Seasonal run for NYC (Central Park) serves up a classic modern winter setup:
Persistent Warmth: Every month from Sep 2026 through Mar 2027 runs above the 1993–2016 climatology, peaking in January at +2.1°C anomaly.
Snowfall Mean: Ensemble mean finishes near 22”, right in line with typical recent climatological totals but below the 30” average.
The Spread: Wide-open envelope ranging from sub-5” winter to high-end members cresting 50–60”+.
A mild base state doesn’t rule out big hits, but timing and cold shots will have to do all the heavy lifting for snowfall.
