The Cipher Brief

09/29/2025

Retired four-star General Jack Keane, a trusted advisor to President Trump and one of Washington’s most respected military voices, says Israel has a limited window to dismantle Iran’s network of proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis — and reshape the region’s security future.

Following recent meetings with Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, and senior IDF officials, Gen. Keane delivers a rare, candid assessment of the war in Gaza, Israel’s ability to sustain conflict on multiple fronts, and whether Hamas will ever accept a settlement that strips it of power.

He warns that sustained U.S. and allied economic and diplomatic pressure will be critical if Israel is to achieve postwar stability and move closer to normalization with its Arab neighbors.

➡️ Read the full Subscriber+ conversation with Gen. Keane at The Cipher Brief.

09/29/2025

Today’s Open Source Report includes everything that happened over the weekend. Here are just a few of the top headlines:

NATO is reinforcing its defenses in the Baltic after a series of drone incursions over Denmark heightened security concerns across Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signaled that a “mega deal” for U.S. arms purchases is in the works, a potential boost for Kyiv as it presses forward in the war with Russia.

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet with senior U.S. military officers this week in Quantico at an unprecedented gathering.

Israeli forces advance deeper into Gaza ahead of Trump’s planned talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Meanwhile, Russia’s long-term ambitions in Africa are unraveling,

And China’s spy agency quietly grows into a global cyber powerhouse.

Stay ahead of and informed on global security developments as they happen with The Cipher Brief: Subscriber+ insights and expert-driven analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

09/28/2025

Some Americans have recently appeared surprised, or somewhat outraged, at Syria's new President Ahmed al-Sharaa's recent visit to the UN, and the obvious warm welcome he received in the U.S. But readers of The Cipher Brief shouldn't be surprised, given the range of perspectives we've already published on this. Back in May we spoke with former Associate Deputy Director of Operations at CIA Paula Doyle for a Cipher Brief piece called "Don't Underestimate the Road to Damascus".

"I am still not sanguine about the wisdom of putting a former al-Qaeda terrorist in charge of Damascus, but as my Syrian expat friends say, “Assad was much worse, and we want to go home.” They’re referring, of course, to the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who – together his father before him – ruled the country for more than half a century. For Syrians who have lived in exile and as refugees since the civil war that began in 2011, the new ruler’s affiliation with al-Qaeda is all relative."

Doyle listed three reasons why the US' conditions-based approach to lifting sanctions on Syria could prove to be a winning strategy. You can read the full piece right here: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/dont-underestimate-the-new-road-to-damascus.

Tomorrow we'll share more insights on the new Syria, al-Sharaa and how regional dynamics in the Middle East are shifting. In today's world it can be difficult to keep up on national security and foreign policy developments. It's easier if you read The Cipher Brief. Join our Subscriber+ community. Stay informed.

09/27/2025

Should the U.S. Let Turkey Back Into the F-35 Program?

At this week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the two discussed the prospect of Turkey being allowed to acquire U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets. President Trump didn’t commit, but suggested openness. “I think he’ll be successful with buying the things he’d like to buy,” President Trump said. “He needs certain things and we need certain things.”

Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program after buying Russia S-400 air defense system. Experts are divided on whether to welcome Ankara back into the fold.

Read the full Cipher Brief Deep Dive on the long-running debate over whether Turkey should have access to F-35s:
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/turkey-f35

09/26/2025

Can NATO Still Scare Putin?

After 19 Russian drones violated Polish airspace, Warsaw signed a secret decree allowing NATO forces on its soil. Similar incursions in Romania, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Denmark have European leaders believing Moscow is pushing boundaries - testing the West and probing for weakness.

NATO has responded with Operation Eastern Sentry, deploying fighters and air defenses to its eastern flank. But experts warn that sanctions and air policing aren’t enough. Russia has launched over 6,000 drones in a single month - and deterrence is slipping.

Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Phil Breedlove (Ret.) tells The Cipher Brief that Putin is deliberately testing NATO’s resolve - and warns that unless Western leaders move beyond half-measures, the Kremlin will keep pushing.

👉 Read the full Cipher Brief Expert Interview on what NATO must do now to deter Russia.
🔗 http://bit.ly/3IgJDhW

09/26/2025

Are we already in a war with China - and not realizing it? Former CIA senior executives Dave Pitts and Chip Usher join Brad Christian to break down Beijing’s gray war: a coordinated campaign below the threshold of open conflict aimed at weakening U.S. power.

https://youtu.be/zPmYTNjYxFE

What we cover:

The doctrine: Unrestricted Warfare & the Three Warfare’s (psychological, media, legal)

The six fronts of Beijing’s strategy: cognitive ops, deterrence denial, infrastructure & cyber (Volt Typhoon), economic statecraft & supply chains, geopolitics, tech supremacy (AI/biotech/energy)

What strategic defeat looks like without a shot fired

Solutions: strategic declassification, collective “economic NATO,” friend-shoring critical minerals, and imposing real costs for hostile cyber activity

Why the AI and advanced tech race will set global rules for decades

Subscribe for more expert-level briefings from the TCB Studio.

09/26/2025

Ukraine’s Great Cyber Heist- How Kyiv is turning Moscow’s favorite weapon into an intelligence coup.

For more than a decade, Moscow weaponized disinformation, ransomware, and cyber theft to weaken its rivals. Now, in a stunning reversal, Kyiv is flipping the script - hacking Russian military networks, leaking files on submarines and aircraft, and exposing vulnerabilities at the heart of Moscow’s nuclear deterrent.

This isn’t just disruption - it’s intelligence that NATO and U.S. planners are using right now to sharpen strategy and exploit Russia’s weaknesses.

The stakes: Ukraine’s offensive cyber ops are eroding Russia’s most sacred military secrets - from submarine schematics to drone supply chains - changing the calculus of deterrence and reshaping the future of modern conflict.

National security implications are profound. If Ukraine can expose Russia’s nuclear platforms, what does that mean for U.S. and NATO security planning?

Read the full Cipher Brief Deep Dive for a fascinating look into Ukraine’s cyber offensive and what it means for Western security- http://bit.ly/42JnTSA

09/23/2025

What's at stake in the Gray Zone? A Financial 9-11. See the full conversation https://youtu.be/zPmYTNjYxFE

09/15/2025

Our next Cyber Initiatives Group summit is this Wednesday, September 17, from 12PM- 3PM. You can see the latest details on the agenda, and sign up right here: https://www.cyberinitiativesgroup.com/fall-summit-2025

08/15/2025

Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska could decide more than the fate of Ukraine—it could define the balance of power for years to come.

Rob Dannenberg, former chief of CIA’s Central Eurasia Division, says Putin will try to manipulate Trump with flattery, disinformation, and “negotiations” that cost Russia nothing.

His advice: Confront Putin with the truth about the war, demand an immediate ceasefire, and back Ukraine with ironclad U.S. and allied guarantees.

Read the full analysis: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/putin-trump-alaska

08/14/2025

Russia’s GRU is running a high-risk sabotage campaign aimed at disrupting Western aid to Ukraine—targeting logistics, transport, energy infrastructure, and even undersea cables. Former CIA senior executive Mark Kelton connects today’s operations to a little-known but catastrophic WWI sabotage campaign on U.S. soil that damaged the Statue of Liberty and pushed America closer to war. History shows that sloppy tradecraft and high-profile attacks can undermine the very objectives such operations are meant to achieve. Read Kelton’s full analysis here: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/russia-sabotage-backfires

08/12/2025

Are Undersea Cables a “Backdoor for Espionage” Against the U.S.?

Washington is worried about China’s access to a vast data network on the ocean floor

Washington is worried about China’s access to a vast data network on the ocean floor