The Cipher Brief

12/03/2025

Europe is facing a surge in gray zone attacks — drone incursions, sabotage, cyber operations, disinformation, even assassination attempts — and NATO believes Russia is behind most of it. Now the alliance is considering a stronger response.

Join The Cipher Brief for a special virtual event, Monday, December 8, with experts from CIA, DoD, SHAPE and the British Foreign Office to break down how Russia is fighting this war and how NATO plans to defend against it.

🎯 Don’t miss this rare, inside-the-room briefing. Become a Subscriber+ member today to learn how to register for this event. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/subscriber-plus

11/28/2025

‘Mind-Blowing’ Pentagon Overhaul Will Reshape U.S. Defense Acquisition.

The Pentagon is attempting something it hasn’t done in more than 60 years: blow up its own acquisition system and rebuild it using the speed, iteration, and urgency of Silicon Valley.

Entrepreneur and Stanford Professor Steve Blank calls the overhaul “mind-blowing”—not because the ideas are new, but because for the first time, the Department is adopting startup-style innovation at scale, consolidating PEOs, empowering new Portfolio Acquisition Executives, and forcing the system to move at the pace of modern conflict.

But Blank also warns:

⚠️ Chaos is coming as decades of bureaucracy collide with reform

⚠️ Defense primes are preparing for a “lobbying war” to protect legacy models

⚠️ The stakes in the U.S.–China tech race have never been higher

This is one of the clearest, most candid looks yet at how Washington is trying to regain technological advantage—and the risks if it doesn’t move fast enough.

👉 Read the full featured interview in The Cipher Brief- https://www.thecipherbrief.com/defense-acquisition-pentagon-steve-blank

Become a Subscriber+ for expert-driven national security insights you won’t get anywhere else.

11/28/2025

A Real-Life Russian Information Operation—Explained by Someone Who Was in the Room

Former CIA Senior Executive Glenn Corn pulls back the curtain on a 2018 episode that reveals exactly how Moscow weaponizes information—and how easily U.S. political divisions can be exploited.

Corn, who helped coordinate the Washington visit of Russia’s FSB and SVR chiefs, offers a rare first-person account of how a single “chance encounter” with a Russian journalist triggered a disinformation cascade across U.S. and international media—complete with false claims, manufactured narratives, and insinuations designed to undermine a sitting U.S. president.

His expert analysis shows how Russia identifies vulnerabilities inside its target audience—and why critical thinking, rather than emotion, is the first line of defense against foreign influence.

If you want to understand how Russian information operations really work—not the Hollywood version—this is essential reading.

👉 Read the full Expert Perspective and get the deepest national security insights, only on The Cipher Brief: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/russia-information-operations

11/28/2025

The Cipher Brief's Global Intelligence Report for Friday, November 28, 2025.

The Cipher Brief's Global Intelligence Report for Friday, November 28, 2025

A National Guard soldier has died following a targeted shooting in Washington, triggering a federal review of Afghan vetting. In Ukraine, Zelenskiy’s powerful chief of staff Andriy Yermak resigns after an anti-graft raid, deepening wartime political strain.

Across Europe, discussions once unthinkable—retaliatory options against Russia—are now entering the policy mainstream. And a U.S. commission warns that Beijing is actively building an “alternative world order” aligned with Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Stay ahead of the national security landscape with today’s full Open Source Report and the expert insight that defines Cipher Brief Subscriber+ membership.

➡️ Read today’s OSR at The Cipher Brief- https://www.thecipherbrief.com/report/global-intelligence-report-for-friday-november-28-2025

➡️ Upgrade to Subscriber+ for expert-driven national security analysis

11/20/2025

Russia’s SVR, GRU, and FSB helped lead the Kremlin into a disastrous war—but none of them will face real consequences.

This Expert Perspective explains why Putin protects the very services that failed him - and what their internal rivalries and miscalculations mean for the next phase of Russian aggression.

Read the full analysis at The Cipher Brief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/russias-intelligence-services-after-the-war-will-they-be-held-accountable-for-their-failures

11/18/2025

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys joins Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly in Washington with a blunt warning: Western military restraint is encouraging, not deterring, the Kremlin. Budrys explains why Lithuania is raising defense spending to more than 5% of GDP by 2026—the highest in the democratic world—and pushing NATO toward offensive deterrence and denial “from the very first inch.”

He details Belarus’ role as a state-enabled criminal actor, from weaponized migration to smuggling operations using high-altitude balloons that forced Lithuania to shut down its main international airport, and why Minsk deserves tougher sanctions. Budrys also walks through recent Russian gray-zone activity in the Baltic Sea and NATO airspace, arguing that only stronger posture—not de-escalation—has stopped undersea infrastructure attacks and drone incursions.

The Minister lays out what a potential Ukraine ceasefire would mean for the Baltics, why Vilnius is committing 0.25% of GDP annually to Ukraine’s security for ten years, and how Russian forces redeployed from Ukraine could reshape the threat on NATO’s eastern flank. He also highlights Lithuania’s energy break from Moscow—now sourcing 75% of its LNG from the U.S.—and its push for tougher economic security policies toward China as it prepares to hold the EU presidency in 2027.

A candid, front-line view of deterrence, gray-zone warfare, and the future of the transatlantic alliance.

11/13/2025

The Pentagon is taking aim at a new “adversary”: its own broken acquisition system.

A sweeping new plan from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth would scrap legacy processes, push commercial-first “good enough” solutions, and empower new portfolio leaders to get weapons to the field in months instead of years. The goal: accept more acquisition risk now to avoid operational failure later as adversaries iterate faster with drones, AI and gray-zone tactics.

In our latest Cipher Brief deep dive, Executive Editor Brad Christian talks with Gen. Phil Breedlove (Ret.), Lt. Gen. Mike Groen (Ret.) and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Steve Blank about what this overhaul really means: how far you can push an “85% solution” without putting troops at risk, whether tribalism inside the Pentagon will kill reform, and how big defense primes and new entrants will fight it out in Congress.

👉 Subscriber+ Members can access the full conversation at The Cipher Brief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/defense-acquisition-arsenal-freedom

11/11/2025

Sudan’s War Without Borders

The conflict tearing through Sudan is no longer just an internal power struggle — it’s a proxy war drawing in players from across the Middle East, Africa and beyond.

From the UAE’s covert airlifts and gold financing to Turkey’s drone shipments, Iran’s re-entry, and Russia’s opportunistic maneuvers, foreign powers are arming rival factions in a struggle that now stretches from the Red Sea to the Sahel.

Experts tell The Cipher Brief that Sudan’s descent into chaos risks creating a long-term “frozen conflict,” with the RSF entrenching control over Darfur and the SAF clinging to the Nile corridor. The result: a humanitarian catastrophe, a fractured state, and a dangerous new fault line for regional power politics.

👉 Read the full Cipher Brief analysis: Sudan’s Descent into a Proxy War
🔗 https://www.thecipherbrief.com/sudan-war-without-borders

11/07/2025

Can High-Tech “Sensor Fusion” Revolutionize Biosurveillance?

As threats of bioterrorism and future pandemics loom, a new wave of technology may hold the key to faster detection and smarter prevention. Experts are exploring how AI-powered sensor fusion — combining data from satellites, environmental sensors, and even wearable devices — could transform how we identify and contain biological threats before they spread.

From the battlefield to public health, this innovation could redefine early warning systems and reshape how nations prepare for biological risks.

🔍 Read the full story in The Cipher Brief — where intelligence meets technology and national security.

👉 Read it now at: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/biological-threats

Some experts believe they have a way to fight bioterrorism – and the next pandemic.

11/07/2025

🚨 Today’s Cipher Brief Open Source Report 🚨

🇷🇺 Russian Forces in Ukraine Near First Major Conquest in More Than Two Years — a potential turning point in the war.

🇮🇱 Israel Launches Airstrikes in Southern Lebanon after ordering evacuations —raising fears of regional escalation.

🇨🇳 China’s Third Carrier, the Fujian, Enters Service — marking a new era in naval power projection.

🇺🇸 U.S. Congressional Budget Office Confirms Hack — a sobering reminder of growing cyber vulnerabilities.

Stay ahead of the national security curve. Read expert-driven context and analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

🔗 Read the full Open Source Report now at https://www.thecipherbrief.com/report/global-intelligence-report-for-friday-november-7-2025

11/05/2025

Dave Pitts is the former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia, Chief of National Resources Division, and served in senior leadership positions in the Counterterrorism Center. He also led CIA’s two largest Field Stations. He is a co-founder of The Cipher Brief’s Gray Zone Group.

11/05/2025

A New Frontline: How Digital Identity Fraud Redefines National Security Threats

AI-driven deception and synthetic identities are transforming espionage and cyberwarfare

AI-driven deception and synthetic identities are transforming espionage and cyberwarfare