ICT severe storm lab

09/20/2024

09/20/2024

Mesoscale Discussion 2093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas affected...from south-central into northeast Kansas...and
small parts of northwest Missouri and far southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202220Z - 210045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms over south-central Kansas may persist into the
evening in some form and affects locations such as Wichita, Topeka
and eventually Kansas City. Strong wind gusts appear to be the
primary concern.

DISCUSSION...High-based storms have moved from the Panhandles into
south-central KS, with some strengthening noted as better moisture
is encountered. These storms are on the nose of a hot/low-level
lapse rates plume, and close to a warm front draped northwest to
southeast across KS.

Visible imagery shows other areas of towering CU just east of the
ongoing cluster as well, near the KS/OK border, with additional CU
fields into north-central KS in the warm advection zone.

As the low-level jet increases this evening, the warm front is
forecast to shift northward across KS and western MO. This will
result in destabilization across areas that are currently stable,
and, provide continued support for ascent via warm advection and
with outflow boundary interactions. Given the size of the ongoing
area of convection, trends will need to be monitored for further
strengthening or expansion of wind threat through the evening.

09/20/2024

Mesoscale Discussion 2091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma...Texas...Colorado and Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202025Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and marginally
severe hail are possible with the stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional radar imagery showed
high-based showers and thunderstorms ongoing over parts of southwest
KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Likely associated with ascent from a
weak shortwave trough and front, these storms have persisted in a
drier and weakly buoyant air mass through the early afternoon.
However, convection should gradually expand northeastward toward a
more moist and buoyant air mass (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg)
through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening.
Continued heating and weak ascent will also support additional
destabilization and storm development.

Area VADs are supportive of some storm organization with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. A few stronger/more persistent mutlicells or even
marginal supercell structures are possible. Damaging winds appear to
be the most likely threat given fairly steep low-level lapse rates
and recent reported gusts to 44 kt at KHQG. Increasing buoyancy with
eastward extent, and some potential for supercell structures may
also support a risk for marginally severe hail with the deeper
storms.

While storm coverage has so far remained isolated, additional storm
development is expected through the afternoon/evening. Still, the
limited overlap with buoyancy/deep-layer shear and lack of broader
forcing for ascent should keep storm organization and coverage
fairly limited. A WW appears unlikely at this time.

09/19/2024

a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued

Mesoscale Discussion 2087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...North-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192017Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated by around 4-6 PM
CDT across northern Oklahoma into southern/southeast Kansas. This
activity may pose a severe hail/wind threat as it spreads into
eastern Kansas this evening. Watch issuance may be needed later this
afternoon/evening to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery over the past 30 minutes has shown
a steady uptick in cumulus development along a diffuse surface
trough/cold front from southern KS into the eastern TX Panhandle.
The 18 UTC sounding from TOP shows a stout cap remains in place
across east/northeast KS, but hot temperatures across OK/southern KS
in the upper 90s to low 100s are actively mixing out lingering
inhibition (as evidenced by the recent deep convection along I-40 in
western OK). This trend appears to be faster than depicted by recent
CAM solutions, suggesting that robust initiation may occur in the
coming hours across southern KS.

As storms develop, they will mature in an environment characterized
by MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg and 30-40 knots of effective
bulk shear (based on the recent TOP sounding and latest mesosnalysis
estimates). Deep-layer shear vectors largely orthogonal to the front
should favor discrete cells initially with a large hail threat (most
likely hail size between 1.0 to 1.75 inches), but increasing storm
coverage through early evening should promote clustering with an
increasing potential for severe winds (50-70 mph) as activity
spreads into eastern KS. While timing remains somewhat uncertain,
watch issuance may be needed late this afternoon/early evening
across this region.

09/18/2024

Showers and thunderstorms are developing moving northeast out of Oklahoma into Kansas some storms can be strong to severe

09/18/2024

Mesoscale Discussion 2084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Areas affected...The eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma
and southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182042Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening across the eastern Texas Panhandle and into
adjacent portions of northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Thunderstorm coverage should remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance, but instances of severe hail/wind will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows deepening cumulus along a
weakly confluent surface trough across the TX Panhandle into
southern KS. The southerly flow regime across the region has helped
offset the influence of diurnal mixing with dewpoints remaining the
low to mid 60s. Concurrently, temperatures are warming into the low
to mid 90s, which is eroding inhibition and supporting MLCAPE
upwards of around 1000 J/kg. Any further improvements to the
thermodynamic environment will be modest through late afternoon,
namely in the form of steepening low-level lapse rates as
temperatures peak in the mid to upper 90s. However, nearly zonal
30-35 knot flow aloft is supporting somewhat elongated mid-level
hodographs with similar effective bulk shear values. This kinematic
environment should support organized convection, including the
potential for a supercell or two with an attendant risk for large
hail (most likely up to 1.0-1.75 inches in diameter) and severe
winds. Based on the aforementioned satellite trends, at least a
couple of storms appear probable, but the fairly weak forcing for
ascent along the surface trough and stronger inhibition downstream
into OK and KS suggests that storm coverage and duration may be
limited. Consequently, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Moore/Gleason.. 09/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

09/06/2024

the GFS weather model is still hinting at more 100 degrees days

09/05/2024

showers and thunderstorms have started to devolve nonsevere at this time

09/03/2024

This Day In Weather History

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

In 1970, severe thunderstorms hammered Southeast Kansas with hail that reached epic diameters of 4 to nearly 6 inches. Coffeyville, Kansas was bombarded by a hideous hailstone that measured 17.5 inches in circumference, 5.7 inches in diameter and weighed 1.67 pounds. It had been the largest hailstone on record in the United States until June 22, 2003, when Aurora, Nebraska was hammered by a specimen measuring 18.75 inches in circumference and 7 inches in diameter. However, the Aurora event did not 'hail' as king of hailstones very long. On July 23, 2010, an even more humongous hailstone 8 inches in diameter and weighing 1.94 pounds landed in Vivian, South Dakota.

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09/03/2024

Seasonably warm temperatures are expected the next few days. There is a chance for showers and storms on Thursday into Thursday night, then turning cooler to start the weekend!

09/03/2024

Enjoy this unseasonably cool weather because the rest of September looks hot, possibly adding more 100-degree days.

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09/02/2024

Daytime highs will be in the 80s with mostly dry weather expected. A few showers and storms will be possible on Thursday.

Here is a map showing August rainfall amounts across Kansas. This map constitutes a mix of ground truth and radar estimates. Also listed are some of the highest ground truth observations across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

09/01/2024

A quiet weather pattern will dominate the region for the next several days. Temperatures will remain near or a little below normal for this time of year. Little to no chance for rain expected.

08/31/2024

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over southeast Kansas through about sunset. Severe weather is not expected. Most locations will remain dry.

08/31/2024

Seasonably cool temperatures in the 50s and 60s are forecast tonight across Kansas.

08/31/2024

Some showers with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm is possible this morning in Southeast Kansas. This activity is not expected to be strong or severe. The remainder of the weekend will be clear and cooler.

08/30/2024

Areas of showers and thunderstorms this morning across the state. By the afternoon, this activity will move into southeast Kansas. A few areas of heavy rainfall are possible but severe thunderstorms are not expected.