Midwest Storm Hunters

Midwest Storm Hunters Part time storm chaser out of southern Wisconsin. Page used to document severe WX in the region. Storm Chaser Justin Schliem.

Moderators Chase Pemble and Lane Ingle-Shaw. Licensing info email- [email protected]

Line(s) of thunderstorms likely later today into this evening. There is a low end threat for severe thunderstorms across...
01/08/2026

Line(s) of thunderstorms likely later today into this evening.

There is a low end threat for severe thunderstorms across parts of Indiana, Illinois and Missouri this afternoon and evening.

A fast moving trough will traverse northeast across the region. As it encounters an airmass of 50s and 60s dewpoints and more than sufficient shear, numerous storms are expected to develop. However instability will be marginal at best, limiting the intensity of storms. Nonetheless any organized lines of storms could produce 60mph wind gusts and a brief spin up tornado.

Theres a low end chance for a few severe storms Thursday morning across parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Timing and low inst...
01/08/2026

Theres a low end chance for a few severe storms Thursday morning across parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Timing and low instability will keep things from getting out of control but there still could be a few isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds, hail and perhaps a brief tornado.

This threat will rapidly shift northeast into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley regions by the afternoon. I'll have an update on this potential by early morning after taking a look at the latest guidance and observations.

Confidence is slowly increasing in Friday to Saturdays system for the Midwest. Ensemble guidance is beginning to tighten...
01/07/2026

Confidence is slowly increasing in Friday to Saturdays system for the Midwest. Ensemble guidance is beginning to tighten the range of low pressure track and intensity. Changes are still expected as we refine details over the next few days. As of now a swath of at least light snow is expected for much of Wisconsin, NE Iowa and SE Minnesota with heavier snow towards N Wisconsin, N Michigan and the UP.

Marginal risk for severe storms for southern Missouri and Illinois Thursday 1/8.An area of low pressure will quickly mov...
01/07/2026

Marginal risk for severe storms for southern Missouri and Illinois Thursday 1/8.

An area of low pressure will quickly move through the Midwest to Great Lakes Thursday. Some weak instability may be present ahead of this trough that could allow a few isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds gusts or a brief tornado. I'm not too concerned about this setup but still stay weather aware in this region tomorrow afternoon.

Winter system(s) Thursday through Saturday. A complex forecast is ahead later this week into the weekend. Multiple syste...
01/06/2026

Winter system(s) Thursday through Saturday.

A complex forecast is ahead later this week into the weekend. Multiple systems are possible across the region bringing varying temperatures and precipitation.

Thursday appears to be a mainly rain event with some light snow across parts of the western and northern regions that have cold enough temperatures and see the back side of the precipitation shield. Confidence is medium to high that this system will occur.

Friday night/Saturday looks more uncertain but it could be more impactful if it occurs as more cold air and wind looks possible with it. The NWS blend of models shows moderate snowfall for parts of the region with more impactful snow in the U.P. We'll have to wait a few more days to sort out guidance and trends before becoming confident enough for a snowfall forecast.

Indiana 2025 tornado reports review. Indiana had a very active Spring. Well over doubling my prediction and the annual a...
01/06/2026

Indiana 2025 tornado reports review.

Indiana had a very active Spring. Well over doubling my prediction and the annual average. While I didn't visually see any of these tornadoes I was able to chase a nocturnal QLCS tornado west of Indianapolis in early April and came across extensive damage paths in its wake.

A quick round of freezing rain and mixed precipitation is likely for parts of MN, WI and MI tonight into Tuesday. Winter...
01/05/2026

A quick round of freezing rain and mixed precipitation is likely for parts of MN, WI and MI tonight into Tuesday.

Winter weather advisories are in place for parts of these areas for upto a few tenths of an inch of ice accretion and minor sleet and snow accumulations. Some improvement of road conditions are expected by Tuesday afternoon as temperatures warm near or above freezing.

A low pressure system will move ENE through the Midwest during this time leading to a narrow corridor of this precipitation along a warm front. Some minor snow accumulations are possible along the trailing cold front later on Tuesday afternoon.

Slight risk for severe storms issued by the SPC for Friday 1/9 for the lower Ohio and Mississippi Valley regions. As of ...
01/05/2026

Slight risk for severe storms issued by the SPC for Friday 1/9 for the lower Ohio and Mississippi Valley regions. As of now only the northern fringes of the risk area highlight parts of the Midwest. (S IL).

Winter storm potential later this week. Model guidance is still hinting at a decent system for the Midwest around Friday...
01/04/2026

Winter storm potential later this week.

Model guidance is still hinting at a decent system for the Midwest around Friday 1/9. Guidance is still all over with the placement/timing, track and intensity of the low pressure which will greatly affect where and what types of weather hazards we may be dealing with. With cold air filtering back into from the north accumulating snow is likely the biggest hazard as of now. I'll update as needed throughout the week.

2025 Illinois tornado reports review. What a year in Illinois for tornadoes. All but 3 months recorded tornadoes in 2025...
01/04/2026

2025 Illinois tornado reports review.

What a year in Illinois for tornadoes. All but 3 months recorded tornadoes in 2025. I predicted an above average year for reports in IL but not this much above. Over 2.5 times as many tornado reports compared to average.

I was in the State the evening of March 14 as Midwest Weather and I intercepted multiple nocturnal tornadoes. Below is a still shot of an EF2 near Mascoutah IL as it was backlit by power flashes.

After a hyper active 2024 season in Iowa, things trended down big time in 2025 with well below average tornado reports. ...
01/03/2026

After a hyper active 2024 season in Iowa, things trended down big time in 2025 with well below average tornado reports. I predicted a near average season.

Watching late next week for the possibility of a notable trough in the Midwest. Confidence is very low due to model diff...
01/03/2026

Watching late next week for the possibility of a notable trough in the Midwest. Confidence is very low due to model differences at this range. The trend has been for this trough to shift further southeast than previous guidance runs. This would mean a colder solution than what is shown here by the European AI model.

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