02/10/2025
Why mortgages WILL drop, and house prices WILL rise.
I survived a 10.75% mortgage rate in 2008, but then I spotted the pattern that persists today. Each interest rate cycle brings lower highs and lower lows. Rates still cycle, but the long-term trend is down.
In hindsight, 2025 might be the year many felt ‘this time it’s different.’ Higher-for-longer rates forced prices lower, and further. Many had to quit, or sell at a loss.
But mortgage rates HAVE TO fall more. Why? Because decent pay rises can’t match even modest house price inflation. Higher prices mean bigger mortgages, and those only work if rates drop.
Lower rates mean more money in pockets to spend, more power for first home buyers, and better cash flow for investors. More credit creation means NZ will be climbing out of recession. Good news!
Here’s the question: If the pattern's clear, why isnt housing already booming? What would need to change for that to be true?