03/12/2026
2026 Oscars predictions: Who will win? Who should win? Our picks and best bets for every major category
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The Oscarsare almost here. The 98th Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday, March 15, in Los Angeles, where some of Hollywood's biggest stars will vie for the coveted statuettes honoring the best films and performances from the past year.
And this year's Oscars race is shaping up to beone of the most unpredictablein recent memory. There appear to be two leading contenders for Best Picture:Sinners,director Ryan Coogler's supernatural thriller,which received a record 16 nominations overall, and Paul Thomas Anderson'sOne Battle After Another, which grabbed 13 nods.
But the acting categories appear to be (mostly) wide open.
TimothĂŠe Chalamet, star ofMarty Supremeand this award season's mostcontroversialcharacter, became the youngest actor since Marlon Brando to receive three best-actor Oscar nominations. But Chalamet has yet to win one, and he's up against Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
In the race for best actress, two-time Academy Award-winner Emma Stone (Bugonia) is vying for her third against four would-be first-timers: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet),Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You),Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) and Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue).
The best-supporting actor category features a two-time Oscar winner, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another); a fellow winner andOne Battlecast member, Benicio Del Toro; and three actors who've never won one: Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), and Stellan SkarsgĂĽrd (Sentimental Value).
This year's competition also features the first-ever Academy Award for casting, withOne Battle After Another,Sinners,Hamnet,Marty SupremeandThe Secret Agentvying for that inaugural Oscar.
The 2026 Academy Awards will be held on March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles andbroadcast live at 7 p.m. ET on ABCand Hulu. Conan O'Brien returns as host for the second consecutive year.
Ahead of Sunday's ceremony, we've rounded up who critics expect to win in every major category â and who Yahoo staffers thinkshouldwin.
See all of our picks below.
Actress in a Supporting Role
⢠Elle Fanning,Sentimental Value⢠Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas,Sentimental Value⢠Amy Madigan,Weapons⢠Wunmi Mosaku,Sinners⢠Teyana Taylor,One Battle After Another
Who will win:Amy Madigan
Madigan won the supporting actress award at the Actor Awards presented by SAG-AFTRA, formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards, earlier this month. AndGold Derbygives theWeaponsstar a more than 60% chance of winning the Oscar.
Who should win:Teyana Taylor
Taylor, who won a Golden Globe for her performance inOne Battle After Another,said just being an Academy Award nominee was "beyond anything I ever allowed myself to fully believe was possible." When the Oscar noms were announced, Taylor said it felt "like a soft, beautiful 'yes' from the universe." A win would be an emphatic "yesss!" â and well deserved.
â Dylan Stableford
Actor in a Supporting Role
⢠Benicio Del Toro,One Battle After Another⢠Jacob Elordi,Frankenstein⢠Delroy Lindo,Sinners⢠Sean Penn,One Battle After Another⢠Stellan Skarsgürd,Sentimental Value
Who will win:Sean Penn
Penn, who earned best-actor Academy Awards forMystic River(2004) andMilk(2009), is the frontrunner, with a 67% chance of winning his third Oscar, per Gold Derby.
Who should win:Benicio Del Toro
It's hard to deny just how compelling Delroy Lindo is inSinners, and earning his first Oscar nomination after 50 years of acting is such an accomplishment. But Benicio Del Toro's portrayal of Sensei Sergio St. Carlos was so magnetic. Every time I saw Sensei on the screen, I couldn't help but smile. His character felt like such a bright spot in the film â and knowing that Del Toro had a say in making St. Carlos a peaceful protector makes it even more special.
â Neia Balao
Casting
â˘Hamnetâ˘Marty Supremeâ˘One Battle After Anotherâ˘The Secret Agentâ˘Sinners
Who will win:Sinners
The film won the award for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture at the Actor Awards presented by SAG-AFTRA earlier this month. While that's more akin to a Best Picture award than casting, it bodes well for theSinnersensemble.
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Who should win:Sentimental Value
Joachim Trier'sSentimental Valuereceived nine Oscar nominations, the most for any Norwegian film. But it was somehow not nominated in the casting category, despite four of its actors (Stellan SkarsgĂĽrd, Renate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning) getting nods.
â Dylan Stableford
Actor in a Leading Role
⢠TimothÊe Chalamet,Marty Supreme⢠Leonardo DiCaprio,One Battle After Another⢠Ethan Hawke,Blue Moon⢠Michael B. Jordan,Sinners⢠Wagner Moura,The Secret Agent
Who will win:Michael B. Jordan
Sorry, Timmy. Your first Oscar will have to wait. Gold Derby gives Michael B. Jordan a 67% chance of winning the Academy Award for his leading performance as two characters inSinners. Chalamet, at 19%, is a distant second.
Who should win:TimothĂŠe Chalamet
Look, is TimothĂŠe Chalametbeing a little annoyingin the hunt for his first Oscar? Yes. Does he seem to have anunfortunate case of foot-in-mouth diseaseas the big night approaches? Also yes. And yet I was held fully rapt by his performance as ping-pong extraordinaire Marty Mauser,an infuriating fireball of bravado and chaos wandering through the streets of New York in pursuit of his illogically big dreams. I could never tell whether I wanted him to succeed or get what was coming to him (i.e.,spanked with a paddleby Kevin O'Leary). I fear we must accept that supremely talented peoplearesometimes supremely annoying. I'm still rooting for Timmy.
â Naureen Khan
Actress in a Leading Role
⢠Jessie Buckley,Hamnet⢠Rose Byrne,If I Had Legs I'd Kick You⢠Kate Hudson,Song Sung Blue⢠Renate Reinsve,Sentimental Value⢠Emma Stone,Bugonia
Who will win:Jessie Buckley
Among critics, it's virtually unanimous: Jessie Buckley is a lock for her first Oscar. Gold Derby gives the 36-year-old Irish actress a 100% chance of winning best actress.
Who should win:Rose Byrne
This is just Kate Hudson's second Oscar nomination and first since 2001'sAlmost Famous. And it would be very cool to see her join her mother, Goldie Hawn, as an Oscar winner. But I want Byrne for no other reason than to see the conclusion to this award season's most random storyline. While accepting her best-actress award at the Golden Globes, Byrne revealed that her longtime partner,Bobby Cannavale, missed the ceremony because he wasadopting a bearded dragon at a reptile expo in New Jersey. If Byrne were to somehow pull off the upset, Cannavale could redeem himself at the Oscars â assuming they get a dragon sitter.
â Dylan Stableford
Directing
⢠ChloÊ Zhao,Hamnet⢠Josh Safdie,Marty Supreme⢠Paul Thomas Anderson,One Battle After Another⢠Joachim Trier,Sentimental Value⢠Ryan Coogler,Sinners
Who will win:Paul Thomas Anderson
PTA, as he's also known, has been nominated for 11 Academy Awards throughout his four-decade career. But theBoogie NightsandThere Will Be Blooddirector has yet to win one. There's a good chance that will change on Sunday. Gold Derby gives Anderson a 90% chance of winning his first Oscar.
Who should win:Ryan Coogler
It's no surprise to me that Coogler'sSinnersis one of the few horror films to earn a directing nod. Coogler's movie blends a genuinely scary cinematic experience with gorgeous visuals. (And no, I'm not just talking about when the camera is focused on Michael B. Jordan's dual performance.) His dynamic style makes you feel like you're really in the middle of Smoke and Stack's raucous party and with them again in the nail-biting fight against the undead.
â Kaitlin Reilly
Best Picture
â˘Bugoniaâ˘F1â˘Frankensteinâ˘Hamnetâ˘Marty Supremeâ˘One Battle After Anotherâ˘The Secret Agentâ˘Sentimental Valueâ˘Sinnersâ˘Train Dreams
Who will win:One Battle After Another
It's essentially a two-film race betweenOne Battle After AnotherandSinners. Paul Thomas Anderson's comedic action-thriller swept most of the top prizes at the award shows leading up to the Oscars. But Ryan Coogler'sSinnersscored an upset win for cast performance at the Actor Awards earlier this month. Gold Derby givesOne Battle(69%) a decisive edge overSinners(27%). It would be anenormousupset if either of these two films didn't win Sunday's top prize.
Who should win:One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson's genre-defying movie is an astonishingly entertaining film. It's hard to categorize, but I'll try: a stoner-dad political satire about how each generation finds themselves befuddled by the next, no matter how subversive and revolutionary they were in their youth. It's a rousing spectacle that entertains, first and foremost, but also takes on our current political climate and dares to laugh in its face â "hail Saint Nick!" â all while being a deeply personal film for its writer-director about how to be a father in such a world. Anderson's ability to manage all these contradictions, not to mention the terrific performances from all involved, makesOne Battle After Anotherthe movie of the year.
â Brett Arnold
March 12, 2026 at 09:12PM via Polycom
The Oscarsare almost here. The 98th Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday, March 15, in Los Angeles, where some of Hollywood's biggest stars will vie for the coveted statuettes honoring the best films and performances from the past year.
